汽车及零部件行业：颠覆汽车行业的竞赛.docx

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1、oCMod sqE 8 09。0LTable of ContentsTHE FUTURE OF THE AUTO INDUSTRY3SMART MOBILITY INTELLIGENCE 4AUTONOMOUS DRIVING WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE 5SENSING AND DATA INPUT - THE HARDWARE6MOST BRANDS ARE MOVING TO LEVEL 3 7A SOFTWARE-DEFINED ERA 10GLOBAL ACCELERATION ON ELECTRIFICATION12KEY DISCUSSION ON DIFFERE

2、NT MARKETS 13THE FAIRYTALE OF HIGH VALUATION15INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS 18Dongfeng Motor Group (00489 HK) 19Nexteer (01316 HK) 22手士而涉式 Jop9s scCDuodE。cds-50E03-JodCt-oo(l)sGreat Wall Motor (02333 HK) 25THE FUTURE OF THE AUTO INDUSTRYoCMod sqE OS。0LPolicies to guide the China auto industry into a global

3、 powerhouse. Key policies continued to roll out in 2H20 for the autoindustry, with the “New Energy Vehicle Development Plan 2021-2035H (Hthe Development Plan1) approved by the StateCouncil to set the tone at the top for the industry. The overall target in 2025 is to achieve approximately 20% penetra

4、tion ratefor new energy vehicles (NEV), also requiring the average power consumption to lower to 12 kWh/100 km. While theDevelopment Plan was more of a guidance base, the nEnergy-saving and NEV Technology Roadmap 2.0“(“NEV TechnologyRoadmap11) and Intelligent-Connected Vehicles Roadmap 2.0M (HICV Ro

5、admap1) provide more detailed requirements andtimeline for the technological upgrade for the auto industry. The former relates more to the development timeline for NEVs,aiming for a 50% penetration rate by 2035. Also, average fuel consumption is to be lowered to 4.6/100 km by 2025. The ICVRoadmap pr

6、ovides more requirements related to requirements for smart vehicles, setting out the basis and the timeline for fullautonomous driving (See Table-1 for summary of key policies). We recognize that the future of the auto industry relies on thefour primary forces, namely autonomous, connected, electric

7、, and shared vehicles (the four forces,1). The scope of the fourforces is very extensive. This Sector Report attempts to discuss autonomous and electric vehicles at a high level, particularlyfocusing more in the context of China and OEMs.Table-1: Summary of Key PoliciesDate PolicyKey TargetsOct-20NE

8、V Development Plan (2021-2035)新能源汽车产业发展规划(20212035年)A 15 year development plan for NEVs, targeting four key areas to help accelerate theindustry*s development, which includes 1) improving industry technology capacity by buildingnew industry ecosystems; 2) accelerating industrial integration and deve

9、lopment; 3) improvinginfrastructure; and 4) stepping up international market integration.The specific targets include bringing the average power consumption of new, purely electricpassenger cars down to 12 kWh/100 km and raising the proportion of new NEVs in the salesof new vehicles to 20 percent by

10、 2025.Energy-saving and NEV TechnologyOct-20 Roadmap 2.0节能与新能源汽车技术路线图2.0The new technology roadmap proposes overall goals for China*s automobile industry by 2035,which include that the industry will realize electrification transformation; intelligent connectedvehicle technologies will be mature and

11、widely applied. Key targets are as follows1. NEVs are estimated to account for 50% of the countr/s total sales by 2035;2. In 2025, 2030 and 2035, average fuel consumption of new vehicles, including NEVs,will reach 4.6L/100 km, 3.2L/100 km and 2.0L/100 km, respectively;3. High-level autonomous vehicl

12、es will enter the market by 2025, and will be widely usedon highways by 2030. And by 2035, autonomous vehicles are expected to be able torun with other vehicles on the same road.The roadmap puts forward four development goals,1.Nov-20Intelligent-Connected Vehicles Roadmap2.02.智能网联汽车技术路线图2.03.4.The p

13、enetration rate of partial automation (PA) and conditional automation (CA) levelintelligent networked vehicles will continue to increase, reaching 50% in 2025 and over70% in 2030;Over 50% of new vehicles will carry the C-V2X (cellular vehicle-to-everything) system.It will be basically popularized in

14、 2030;In 2025, HA IC Vs will first realize commercial applications in specific scenarios andlimited areas, and continue to expand its scope;Technologies like perception, decision making and drive-by-wire execution will meetthe design demands of fully automated (FA) systems.手 士而修 式 Jou S scCDuodE。cds

15、-50E03Source: NDRC, MIITf Guotai Junan International.SMART MOBILITY INTELLIGENCEoCMod sqE 8 09。0LChina to push forward full automation. China issued its own set of definitions for autonomous driving. We believe it isimportant to understand the level of automation and to read this in tandem with the

16、ICV Roadmap in order to get a full pictureof Chinas ambitions. MIIT issued levels of driving automation in Mar. 2020 which will be effective in 1st Jan. 2021. There are anumber of points worth mentioning regarding the taxonomy of autonomous driving. Firstly, the set of standards issued by MIITis highly s