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1、PaUO1nnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndPo1icyResearchWorkingPaper10450TowardsaMoreNuancedApproachtoMeasuringHousingAffbrdabi1ityEvidencefromPakistanPZOfnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndCatherine1ynCbAshnaStnaYanF.Zbangwor1dBankgroupUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resi1ienceand1andG1oba1PracticeMay2023Po1icyRESEARcHWorkingPaper10450Abst
2、racthispaperisaproductoftheUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resi1ienceand1andG1oba1Practice.Itispartofa1argereffortbytheWor1dBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodeve1opmentpo1icydiscussionsaroundthewor1d.Po1icyResearchWorkingPapersarea1sopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatc1
3、ynchwcr1dbank.org.TbcPoiityResee1opnentissues.Ano1)jectieoftheseriesisto妒tbefindingoutquick1y,eveniftbepresentationsare1essthanfu11yf)o1isbed.Thepaperscanythenamesoft!)tauthorsandshou1dbecitedaccording1y.Tbefinding,interpretations,andconc1usionsexpressedinthispaperareenfirefythose可theauthors.Theydon
4、otnecrssari1yrrprvstrnttbeviewsoftbeIn1eniationa1bankforReconstructionandDevtiopMen1/Wor1dBankanditsaffi1iatedorganisations,orthoseoftbeV1xecuihvDincforsof1beWor1dBankortbeavmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamTowardsaMoreNuancedApproachtoMeasuringHousingAffordabi1ityEvidencefromPaki
5、stanCatherine1ynch,SeniorUrbanSpecia1ist,Wor1dBankTheauthorsgratefu11yacknow1edgecommentsonear1yversionsofthispaperfromSamehWahbazJudyBaker,DeanCirazSimonWa11ey,DaoHarrison,MarjaHoekSmitzGhaza1aMansurizSandeepSingh,andDanie1aBehr.A11errorsandomissionsareourown,andthefindings,interpretations,andconc1
6、usionsexpressedinthispaperdonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationa1BankforReconstructionandDeve1opment/Wor1dBankanditsaffi1iatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWor1dBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.AshnaSingh,HousingConsu1tantYanF.Zhang,SeniorUrbanSpecia1ist,Wor1dBankAnne
7、x1:App1icationoftheResidua1ExpenditureMethodinUrbanPakistanMariaQazi,ResearchAna1yst,Wor1dBankAnirudhRajashekar,Consu1tantJE1:G51,N25,O18,R21,R31,R32,R38Keywords:Housing,Affordab1eHousing,HousingFinance,HousingMortgage,HousingSubsidies1. IntroductionTheinabi1itytoaffordadecentshe1terhasadetrimenta1e
8、ffectonpeop1es1ives,theirwe11-beingandproductivity,andthebroadereconomy.Inthe1970sand1980s,theunaffordabi1ityofhousingwasconsideredaprob1emof1ower-incomegroups;today,itencompassesmidd1e-incomehouseho1dsinmanyofthewor1dscities.Attemptsinbothdeve1opedanddeve1opingeconomiestostemthegrowingdifferentia1b
9、etweenincome1eve1sandhousingpriceshavehad1imitedimpact.AccordingtotheMcKinseyG1oba1Institute,theaffordab1ehousinggapis$650bi11ionayearandwi11impact1.6bi11ionpeop1eby2025(Garemoeta1.2014).Giventhepervasivenessoftheprob1emonag1oba1sca1e,housingaffordabi1ityisincreasing1yafocusofpub1icdiscourse-forpo1i
10、cymakers,po1iticians,academics,industryprofessiona1s,andcommunitiesa1ike.Yet,thereis1itt1eagreementonwhataffordabi1itymeans,howtomeasureit,andwhethertheconventiona1measuresofhousingaffordabi1ityadequate1yref1ectrea1ity.Ani11-definedandpoor1ymeasuredaffordabi1ityprob1emcan1eadtoinappropriatepo1icyres
11、ponsesthatmayhave1itt1eornoeffectoname1ioratinghousingprob1emsormayevenexacerbatethem.Thetopicofhousingaffordabi1ityisofparticu1arimportancetotheWor1dBankandotherdeve1opmentinstitutions.Sustainab1eDeve1opmentGoa111requiresaffordab1ehousingfora11by2030butdoesnotprovideadefinitionofaffordabi1ity.There
12、isa1soa1ackofc1arityoragreementonwhatanzaffordab1ehouse*isandhowzhousingaffordabi1ityshou1dbedefinedforthoseinthebottom40percentoftheincomedistribution.Theconventiona1practicehasbeentouseastandardizedhousingaffordabi1itymeasureacrossa11incomesegments(e.g.,the30percenthousingependiture-to-incomeratio
13、).Whi1ethismaybearoughmeasuretoca1cu1ateaffordabi1ity,itdoesnota1waysaccurate1yref1ectahouseho1dsbudgetrea1ity,particu1ar1yforthepoor.Theinabi1ityofsuchconventiona1measurestodifferentiateaffordabi1ity1eve1sbyincomesegmentorhouseho1dcompositionortenure-whicharea11critica1factorsthatdeterminewhatahous
14、eho1dcanactua11yaffordtoa11ocateforhousing-mayresu1tinoverestimatingaffordabi1itycha11engesforsomeandunderestimatingitforothers.Accuratemeasurementofhousingaffordabi1ityattheaggregate1eve1isnecessarytoinformpo1icydesign.Forexamp1e,whatportionofthepopu1ationishousingcostoverburdened?Whichsub-groups?W
15、hichtenuretype?Whichcitiesorsub-marketsarefacinganaffordabi1itycrisis?Whatistherea1housingdeficitbyincomesegmentorsub-group?Simi1ar1y,anaccuratemeasurementofhousingaffordabi1ityatthehouseho1d1eve1isa1sonecessarytoinformprogramdesign:Howmuchcanaspecifichouseho1dpayforhousingwithoutcompromisingotheres
16、sentia1needs?Whathousingoptionsareavai1ab1ewithinthathousingbudget,andwherearethegaps?Howmuchandwhattypeofsubsidydoesthehouseho1dneedtocomfortab1ymakehousingpayments?Thispaperprovidesareviewoftheprevai1ingpresumptions,standards,andmeasuresofhousingaffordabi1ity,andproposeswaysinwhichtheymightbeadapted
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