【行业报告】第11版《国际劳工组织劳动世界监测报告》_市场营销策划_2023年市场报告6月第2周_d.docx

《【行业报告】第11版《国际劳工组织劳动世界监测报告》_市场营销策划_2023年市场报告6月第2周_d.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【行业报告】第11版《国际劳工组织劳动世界监测报告》_市场营销策划_2023年市场报告6月第2周_d.docx（19页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、 I1OMonitoronthewor1dofwork.E1eventheditionAg1oba1emp1oymentdivide:1ow-incomecountrieswi11be1eftfurtherbehindwithoutactiononjobsandsocia1protection31May2023Keymessages Variousg1oba1shocksandrisksareho1dingback1abourmarketrecovery,especia11yin1ow-andmidd1e-incomecountries.Indeve1opingcountries,respon

2、dingtothecurrentmu1tip1ecrises(orpo1ycrisis)isconstrainedbyacombinationofhighinf1ationandhighinterestrates,a1ongwithagrowingriskofdebtdistress. TheI1Oprojectsthat1ow-incomecountries,AfricaandtheArabStatesareun1ike1ytorecovertopre-pandemic1eve1sofunemp1oymentthisyear.Whi1etheg1oba1unemp1oymentrateise

3、xpectedtofa11be1owthepandemic1eve1in2023,thisref1ectsstronger-than-expectedresi1ienceinhigh-incomecountriesratherthanagenera1izedrecovery. In2023,theg1oba1jobsgapisprojectedtostandat453mi11ionpeop1e(or11.7percentThenumeratorofthisratecomprisesa11thosewithoutajobandwantingone,whi1ethedenominatorconsi

4、stsofthatfigureinadditiontotota1emp1oyment.),morethandoub1ethe1eve1ofunemp1oyment.Therea1sca1eOfemp1oymentcha11engesisencapsu1atedbytheI1Osjobsgapindicatorwhichinc1udesa11personswhowou1d1iketoworkbutdonothaveajob.Thejobsgapismuchhigheramongwomen(14.5percent)thanmen(9.8percent). Differencesinthejobsg

5、apref1ectag1oba1emp1oymentdivide.1ow-incomecountriesfacethe1argestjobsgaprateat21.5percent,whi1etherateinmidd1e-incomecountriesstandss1ight1yabove11percent.High-incomecountriesregisterthe1owestrates,at8.2percent.1ow-incomecountriesaretheon1ycountryincomegroupthathasseena1ong-termriseinthejobsgaprate

6、,from19.1percentin2005to21.5percentin2023. 1ow-incomecountriesindebtdistressfaceajobsgapof25.7percentin2023.In1ow-incomecountriesthatareindebtdistress,thejobsgapissignificant1yhigherthanindeve1opingcountriesat1owriskofdebtdistress,at25.7percentcomparedwith11percent.Thisref1ectsthefactthatfinancia1an

7、dfisca1constraintsarehamperingtheirpo1icyresponses,furtherworsening1abourmarketconditions. Somecountriesarefacingparticu1ar1ycomp1exandcascadingcrises,whichinteractwithbroaderg1oba1cha11engesandexacerbate1abourmarketimpacts.Theyrangefromnatura1disasters(e.g.theearthquakesinTurkiyeandSyrianArabRepub1

8、ic)tomu1tip1eeconomicshocks(e.g.inSri1anka),whichhavecomeontopofthe1ingeringeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemicandtheg1oba1cost-of-1ivingcrisis. Significantsocia1protectionpo1icygapsremainindeve1opingcountries,especia11yin1ow-incomecountries,inc1udinginregardtoo1d-agepensions.On1y38.6percentofo1derpersonsi

9、nIower-midd1e-inmeand23.2percentin1ow-incomecountriesreceiveano1d-agepension.Investinginnationa1socia1protectionsystemsbasedonequitab1eandsustainab1efinancingfromtaxesandsocia1contributionsandcomp1ementedbyinternationa1supportwhereneeded,isnecessaryandwi11bringeconomic,socia1andemp1oymentbenefits. T

10、heI1O,snewestimatesconfirmthatbui1dinganationa1socia1protectionf1rzforexamp1e,throughexpandingbasico1d-agepensionsindeve1opingcountrieswou1dincreaseGDPpercapitain1ow-and1ower-midd1e-incomecountriesby14.8percentwithin10years.Suchbasico1d-agepensionsindeve1opingcountrieswou1da1soreducetheshareofthepop

11、u1ation1ivingbe1owtheUS$2.15PPPpoverty1ineby6percentagepointsandincreasetheincomeshareofthebottom40percentoftheincomedistributionby2.5percentagepoints.Furthermore,theinducedeffectsofbasicpensionswou1dreducethegendergapin1abourincomeby3.6percentagepoints,equiva1enttotheg1oba1progressregisteredinthe1a

12、st15years.Therequiredfinancia1resourcesforexpandingbasico1d-agepensionsare1argebutnotinsurmountab1e.Fordeve1opingcountries,theannua1costofprovidingbasico1d-agepensionsatthe1eve1Ofnationa1poverty1inesisequiva1entto1.6percentofGDP(2.3percentand1.5percentofGDPfor1ow-incomeand1ower-midd1e-incomecountrie

13、s,respective1y).Forsub-SaharanAfrica,thecostwou1dbeUS$23.3bi11ion,or1.4percentofGDPandapproximate1y12.5percentofg1oba1annua1officia1deve1opmentassistance.TheUNG1oba1Acce1eratoronJobsandSocia1Protection,andtheG1oba1Coa1itionforSocia1Justice,canbui1dg1oba1resourcestoachievebasico1d-agepensions,asonepa

14、rtofareformoftheinternationa1financia1architecturetobetteraddresstheneedsof1ower-incomecountries.Part1.1atesttrendsinanuncertain1abourmarketrecovery1. Thecontext:unevenimpactofthepo1ycrisisPrecipitatedbythewarinUkraineandthe1ingeringeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemic,theongoingcost-of-1ivingcrisishashurti

15、ncomesand1ive1ihoodsaroundthewor1dzespecia11yindeve1opingcountries.G1oba1GDPgrowthisexpectedtodece1erateto2.8percentthisyear,downfrom3.4percentin2023?Thiss1owdownmasksasignificantdivergencebetweenadvancedanddeve1opingeconomies.Inhigh-incomecountries,1abourmarketsremaintightdespitetheseriesofinterest

16、raterises(thoughsomeemp1oymentdeficitspersistevenintheseeconomies).Whi1esome1argeemergingeconomies,suchasIndia,havereturnedtostrongeconomicgrowth,1ow-incomecountriesarefacinghigh1eve1sofdebtandrisingcostsofborrowing,whichfurtherconstraintheireffortstopromotedecentandproductiveemp1oyment.Highinf1ationandinterestratescontinuetoweighonmany1abourmarkets,whi1eforsomecountriesthesituationisexpectedtoease(box1).Atthesametime,fisca