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1、FoUnDaTlonJanuary17,202201:43AMGMTAsiaPrimer:ChinaHealthcareRetailPharmacies-InPursuitofScaleandOperationalEfficiencyAsdistributorsgrowthslows,marketfocusisshiftingdownstreamtotherelativelyless-developedbutfast-growingretailpharmacysegment.Inthisreport,wedelveintothepolicydrivers,marketdynamics,busi
2、nessmodels,andtopplayers,allthewhiledrawingparallelswiththeUSandJapan.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.AsaresultjnvestorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorga
3、nStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRA
4、restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuntiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.ContributorsMORGANSTANIEY ASiA LiMiTED*Laurence TamEquity Analyst 852 2239-1753Laurence.TamMORGANSTANIEY ASiA LiMiTED4Sean WuEquity Analyst“ 852 3963-0755Sean.WuYolandaHuEquity Analyst85
5、2 2848 5649Yolanda.HuMORGANSTANIEY ASiA LiMiTED*Alexis Yan, CFAEquity Analyst 852 2239-7953Alexis.YanMORGANSTANIEY ASiA LiMiTED*Jack LinResearch Associate852 3963-3746Jack.Lin(MORGANSTANIEY ASiA LiMiTED*Yanru TaoResearch Associate852 3963-1041Yanru.Taofft MORGANSTANIEYMUFGSECURiTiESCO.,LTD.*AiFuruka
6、waEquityAnalyst8136836-5461Ai.Furukawa#RESEARCHFoUnDaTlonRetailPharmacies-InPursuitofScaleandOperationalEfficiencyRetailpharmacy marketinChina-The next leg of growth alongthe Chinese healthcare supply chain: China has 580,000 retailpharmacies, vs.88,000 in the US and 21,000 in Japan. Yet, inChina, o
7、nly 25-30% of prescription drugs are dispensed throughretail pharmacies, vs.40% in the US and 50% in Japan. Besidesdifferences in urbanization rates, stage of development is the mainexplanatory variable. Retail dispensing requires connectivity withgovernment payment systems, the availability of high
8、ly trainedpharmacists, and large scale pharmacy chains with the ability tooperate efficiently. In 2020, 57% of Chinas retail pharmaciesbelonged to chains, vs. 66% in the US and 72% in Japan.9AsiaPrimerClick Here For Collection INDUSTRYVIEWChina Healthcare |Asia PacificAttractiveItis official state p
9、olicy to foster growthof mega pharmacy chains within the 14thFive-Year Plan: This includes building 5-10pharmacy chains with annual revenueexceedingRmb50bn. This would imply rev-enueCAGRs of 16-62% over 2020-2025 forthe top chains. Ongoinghealthcare reformsand macrotrendsalsofavor market expansion,t
10、hetopthree in ourview being: 1) prescription outflow from publichospitals; 2) Dual Channel Policy; and 3) urbanization. Meanwhilepublic insurance reforms, a new pharmacy classification system,two-invoice system, and higher professional requirements willdrive consolidation towards the bigger players.
11、 From 2016-2020,the pharmacy market grew at a sales CAGR of 8.6%, but the top 10chains grew at 24.0%, On the risks side, ongoing price cuts on pre-scription drugs and the emergence of Internet health could derailthe high-growth story, depending on how adaptable these phar-Pharmacychains compete base
12、d on their unique advantagesalongthe value chain and geographical strongholds: We wouldbroadlyclassifythe top pharmacy chains into distributor-pharmacy(Sinopharm Guoda, Shanghai Pharma) and pure-play pharmacies(Dashenlin, LBX, Yifeng). Their growth and margin profiles differ,depending on geographica
13、l focus (developed vs. less developedregions), product mix (prescription/specialty drugs vs. TCM/consumer), and growth model (self-build vs. M&A vs. franchising).Some pharmacies (Yixintang) are beginning to resembletheircoun-terparts in the US/Japan, being one-stop shops for drugs, snacks,groceries,
14、 discounted cosmetics, and lottery tickets. From a valua-tion standpoint, the capital markets appearto appreciate foremostthe ability to build scale without sacrificing margins.MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH3macychainsare.RESEARCHFollnDaTlonContents5ExecutiveSummary7TheStructureofChinasPharmaceuticalMarket
15、12 TenPolicies/TrendsThatDriveIndustryGrowthorChallengeExistingBusinessModels15 IndustryLandscape,Drivers,andPitfalls21 ComparingandContrastingtheStrategiesoftheTop10PharmaciesinChina30IndustryFinancialsBusinessModelImplications35TenStrategiesPharmacyChainsExecutetoWinintheMarketplace41UnitedStates43Japan45Valuation-InternationalPerspective脚修微RESEARCHFollnDaTlon
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