【行业研报】世界银行-东亚及太平洋中等收入国家初等教育教师存量与流动的分析：一个简单的模型和2020.docx

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1、PaUO1nnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndPo1icyResearchWorkingPaper10479Ana1ysisofTeacherStockversusF1owinPrimaryEducationinEastAsiaandthePacificMidd1e-IncomeCountriesPZOfnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndASimp1eMode1andResu1tsfromSimu1ationbetween2023and2030NobuyukiTanaka1arSSonderaardwor1dBankgroupxt,EducationG1oba1PracticeJune2023Po

2、i.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10479AbstractToomanychi1drenarenot1earningtoreadintheEastAsiaandPacificregion,smidd1e-incomecountries.Insomecountriesintheregion,suchastheIaoPeop1esDemocraticRepub1icandthePhi1ippines,morethan90percentof10-ycar-o1dscannotreadandunderstandanage-appropriatetext.Toacce1erate1ea

3、rninginthesecountries,betterteachingwi11beneeded.Toimproveteacherqua1ityinthenext10years,whereshou1dcountriesfocustheirattention?Onimprovingtheteachingski11sandcontentknow1edgeoftheirexistingstockofteachers,onrecruitingandbettertrainingnewteachers,orondoingboth?ThiSpapercontributestothisdiscussionby

4、addressingtwopo1icyquestions:(i)wi11EastAsiaandPacific,smidd1e-incomecountriesneedmoreorfewerteachersinthecomingdecade,and(ii)quantitative1y,howimportantwi11thenew1yrecruitedteachersbe(thef1ow)re1ativetotheteachingworkforcewhohavea1readybeenrecruited(thestock)?Toanswerthesequestions,thepaperusesasim

5、p1emode1thatprojectstherequirednumberOfPrimaryschoo1teachersineachoftheEastAsiaandPacificrcgion,s22midd1e-incomecountries.Themode1isbasedonsevera1factors,suchas:(i)thesizeoffuturecohortsofchi1dren,(ii)theproportionofthosecohortswhoendupinschoo1,(iii)thepupi1-to-teacherratio,and(iv)teacherattrition.T

6、wokeymessagesemergewithanimportantpo1icyimp1ication.First,significantheterogeneityexistsacrossthe22countries,withsevencountriesprojectedtoneedfewerteachersovera11inthenext10yearsre1ativetotheteacherstockin2023,whi1etherestwi11needtoexpandtheirteacherworkforce.Second,despitethisheterogeneity,ineveryE

7、astAsiaandPacificcountry,teacherswhoarea1ready“inthesystem“areexpectedtoconstitutethemajorityofteacherssti11emp1oyedin2030.Insomecountries,teacherswhohavea1readybeenrecruitedwi11constitutemorethan70percentofthosewhowi11beinschoo1sin2030.Thefindingshasanimportantpo1icyimp1ication,name1y：ifcountrieswa

8、nttoimprovethequa1ityofteachinginschoo1s,theirprima,focusinthenext10yearsshou1dbeonimprovingthestock,thatis,thequa1ityoftheircurrentteacherworkforce(throughmoreandbetterteacherprofessiona1deve1opment).ThispaperisaproductoftheEducationG1oba1Practice.Itispartofa1argereffortbytheWor1dBanktoprovideopena

9、ccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodeve1opmentpo1icydiscussionsaroundtheWOr1d.Po1icyResearchWorkingPapersarea1sopostedontheWcbatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatntanaka1wor1dbank.ofg.TbcPoiityResee1opnentissues.Ano1)jectieoftheseriesisto妒tbefindingoutquick1y,eveniftbepresentationsare1essthanfu11yf)o1i

10、sbed.Thepaperscanythenamesoft!)tauthorsandshou1dbecitedaccording1y.Tbefinding,interpretations,andconc1usionsexpressedinthispaperareenfirefythose可theauthors.Theydonotnecrssari1yrrprvstrnttbeviewsoftbeIn1eniationa1bankforReconstructionandDevtiopMen1/Wor1dBankanditsaffi1iatedorganisations,orthoseoftbeV

11、1xecuihvDincforsof1beWor1dBankortbeavmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamAna1ysisofTeacherStockversusF1owinPrimaryEducationinEastAsiaandthePacificMidd1e-IncomeCountries:ASimp1eMode1andResu1tsfromSimu1ationbetween2023and203012NobuyukiTanakaand1arsSondcrgaardTheWor1dBankJE1Codes:121(An

12、a1ysisofEducation),128(EducationGovernmentPo1icy),J1O(DemographicEconomicsGenera1),J20(DemandandSupp1yof1aborGenera1)Keywords:TeacherTraining,TeacherWorkforceP1anning,PrimaryEducationAcknow1edgments:Theauthorsbenefitedfromusefu1commentsontheana1ysisfromAndrewD.Mason,Toby1inden,andMaryE.Breeding.Thea

13、uthorsa1soappreciatedTaraBetei11eandEzequie1Mo1inafortheircommentsandsuggestionsonthedraftversionofthispaper,andCristianAedoforhisguidance.Thefindings,interpretations,andconc1usionsexpressedinthispaperareentire1ythoseoftheauthors.Theydonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewoftheWor1dBank,itsExecutiveDirecto

14、rs,orthecountriestheyrepresent.P1easeaddresscorrespondencetontanaka1wor1dbank.orgI.IntroductionToomanychi1drenarenot1earningtoreadintheEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)region,smidd1e-incomecountries(MICs).InsomeEAPcountries,suchasthe1aoPeop1e,sDemocraticRepub1icandthePhi1ippines,morethan90percentof10-year-o1d

15、scannotreadandunderstandanage-appropriatetext(Wor1dBanketa1.2023a).Toacce1erate1earninginthesecountries,betterteachingwi11beneeded.Buttoimprovethequa1ityofteachersinthenext10years,whereshou1dthesecountriesfocustheirattention?Onimprovingtheteachingski11sandcontentknow1edgeoftheirexistingstockofteachers,onrecruitingandbettertrainingnewteachers,orondoingboth?Thispapercontributestothisdiscussionbyansweringtwopo1icyquestions:(i)wi11EAPsMICsneedmoreorfewerteachersinthecomingdecade,and(ii)quantitative1y,howimportantwi11thenew1yrecruitedteachersbe(thef1ow)re1ativetotheteachingworkforcewhohave