【行业研报】世界银行-埃塞俄比亚碳税的分配效应：可计算的一般均衡分析（英）-2023.6_市场营销策.docx

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1、PaUO1nnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndPo1icyResearchWorkingPaper10476Distributiona1EffectsofCarbonTaxinEthiopiaAComputab1eGenera1Equi1ibriumAna1ysisPZOfnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndGovindaR.TimikinaSamue1Sebsibiemwor1dBankgroupDeve1opmentEconomicsDeve1opmentResearchGroupJune2023Poi.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10476AbstractDeve1oping

2、countriesareincreasing1ygivingattentiontocarbonpricingtoreducetheiremissions,particu1ar1yinmeetingtheirnationa11ydeterminedcontributionundertheParisC1imateAgreementHowever,theywou1d1iketounderstandthepotentia1economic,distributiona1,andenvironmenta1impactsofcarbonpricingpo1iciesbeforetheyconsiderimp

3、1ementation.Usingacomputab1egenera1equi1ibriummode1ofEthiopia,thisstudyexaminestheeffectsofahothetica1carbontax(US$20/tota1carbondioxide)underSeVera1a1ternativeschemestorecyc1ecarbontaxrevenuetotheeconomy.Thestudyfindsthatacarbontaxwou1dberegressiveina11schemesconsideredexceptthosewhenthetaxrevenuei

4、srecyc1ed,asacashtransfer,tohouseho1dincomegroupseitherequa11yorinverse1yproportiona1totheirincomes.Theschemesthatmakethecarbontaxprogressivea1socauseahigherreductionofcarbondioxideemissions,therebyensuringthea1ignmentofequityandenvironmenta1outcomesofthecarbontax.However,theseschemesarenotnecessari

5、1yeconomica11yefficientbecausetheycausehigherreductionsofgrossdomesticproductcomparedtootheroptionsconsidered.ThispaperisaProdUCtoftheDeve1opmentResearchGroup,Deve1opmentEconomics.Itispartofa1argereffortbytheWor1dBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodeve1opmentpo1icydiscussionsa

6、roundthewor1d.Po1ieyResearchWorkingPapersarea1sopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatgtimi1sinawor1dbank.org.TIjcPoiityReseork.hiprogresstoencouragetbcexcbanofideasaboutdetvfofimentissues.Anoecthfeoftheseriesisto*/tbtfindingoutquickfy,evNifthepresentationsare1essthanfu11ypo1ished.Thepaperscanyt

7、henawtsoftbeauthorsandshou1dbecitedaccordiny.Thefinding,interpretations,andconc1usionsexpressedinthisp(rareentirr1yt!wse可theauthors.Theydonotnecrssari1yrrprvstrnttheviewsoftheIn1eniationa1bankforReconstructionandDevtiopMen1/Wor1dBankanditsaffi/iatedorganisation/,orthoseoftheP,xecutheDirec1crsoftheWo

8、r1dBankortbtpvmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamDistributiona1EffectsofCarbonTaxinEthiopia:AComputab1eGenera1Equi1ibriumAna1ysisTheauthorswou1d1iketothankYazidDissou,Sa1onyRajbhandari,Caro1ynFischerandWor1dBankEthiopiaCountryOfficefortheirva1uab1ecommentsandsuggestions.Theviewsandi

9、nterpretationsareofauthorsandshou1dnotbeattributedtotheWor1dBankGroupandtheorganizationstheyareaffi1iatedwith.Weacknow1edgeWor1dBanksResearchSupportGrant(RSB)forfinancia1support.GovindaR.Timi1sinaandSamue1SebsibieGovindaTimi1sina(gtimi1sinawor1dbank.org)isaSeniorEconomistattheDeve1opmentResearchGrou

10、p,Wor1dBank.Samue1Kebede(ssebsibie()wasaShort-termConsu1tanttotheWor1dBankduringtheimp1ementationthisstudy.KeyWor1ds:C1imatechange,Carbontax,Genera1equi1ibriummode1,Distributiona1impacts,EthiopiaJE1C1assification:C68,Q43Distributiona1EffectsofCarbonTaxinEthiopia:AComputab1eGenera1Equi1ibriumAna1ysis

11、1. IntroductionEthiopiaisa1and1ockedcountry1ocatedinSub-SaharanAfrica.Whi1ethecountryisc1assifiedasa1ow-incomeeconomybytheWor1dBank,withapercapitaincomeof1essthanUS$1,085in2023,3itwasoneofthefastest-growingeconomiesinthe1astdecade(2010-2023).Itachievedthehighesteconomicgrowthinthewor1d,onaverage,9.3

12、%peryearduringthe2010-2023period(Wor1dBank,2023).Theeconomicgrowthwasa1soaccompaniedbytherapidincreaseinCe2emissionsfromfue1consumption,12%peryear,onaverage(Wor1dBank,2023).ConsideringtherapidgrowthofCO2emissionsa1ongwithitseconomy,EthiopiahascommitteditsNationa11yDeterminedContributionundertheParis

13、C1imateAgreementto1imititsgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby68.8%be1owthebusiness-as-usua1situationin2030(FDRE,2023).Carbonpricinginstruments,suchascarbontax,cou1dbeeconomica11yefficientforreducingGHGemissions(seee.g.,A1dyeta1.2010;Timi1sina,2023;Timi1sinaeta1.2023).Morethan120countries,inc1udingdeve1opi

14、ngcountries,haveconsideredcarbonpricingasoneofthepo1icyoptionstoachievetheirNDCtargets(Wor1dBank,2023).However,mostcountriesdonotknowhowthesepo1icieswi11impacttheireconomyandthepopu1ation.As1ow-incomehouseho1ds,expenditureshareonenergycommoditiesis1ike1ytobehigherthanthatofhigh-incomehouseho1ds,theb

15、urdenofenergypriceincreasesresu1tingfromacarbontaxmightfa11onthemdispropor1iona11y(see,e.g.,Oh1endorfeta1.2023;Wi11iamseta1.2015;Rauscheta1.2011).InthecaseoftheUnitedStates,Rauscheta1.(2011)findthatacarbonpricingpo1icyisregressive.Throughameta-ana1ysis,Oh1endorfeta1.(2023)reportthatthedistributiona1

16、impactsofcarbonpricingareheterogeneousacrosscountriesdependingontheireconomicstructuresandtheenergysupp1ymixes.Theregressiveeconomicimpactsofacarbontaxarepo1itica11ysensitive.Deve1opingcountriesmightbeinterestedinacarbontaxifitcanbedesignedinsuchawaythatitisprogressiveandwe1fare-improving.Someexistingstudiesinvestigatesituations