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1、Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchNIESRMonth1yCPITrackerWe1comeFa11inHead1ineRateDespite1itt1eMovementinUnder1yingMeasuresPau1aBejaranoCarbo19thJu1y2023i1Annua1CPIinf1ationroseby7.9percentinJune,downfrom8.7percentinMay,drivenbyfa11ingpricesformotorfue1whichwaspartia11yoffsetbyrisingpricesi
2、nfood.Measuresofunder1yinginf1ationa1soeaseds1ight1yinJune:forexamp1e,coreCPIandservicesinf1ationbothfe11from31-yearhighsof7.1percentand7.4percent,to6.9percentand7.2percent,respective1y.Thoughthesearea11we1comefa11s,itremainsconcerningthatthesemeasuresofunder1yinginf1ationarypressurescontinuetop1ate
3、auaround7percent,we11abovetheBankofEng1andstargetof2percent.,Pau1aBejaranoCarboAssociateEconomist,NIESRMainpoints Annua1consumerpriceinf1ationroseby7.9inJune,downfrom8.7percentinMay.Thisfa11was1arge1ydrivenbypricedecreasesinmotorfue1swhichwerepartia11yoffsetbypriceincreasesinfdzandrestaurantsandhote
4、1s. Foodinf1ationfe11toanannua1rateof17.3percentinJunefrom18.3percentinMay.Thatitremainssoe1evatedisconcerningsincethereisnogovernmentsupporttohe1phouseho1ds(especia11y1owerincomehouseho1ds,whospendagreaterpartoftheirincomesonfood)offsetthiscost. The1atestfigureof7.9percentrepresentsadownwardsurpris
5、einhead1ineinf1ation,withannua1energypriceinf1ationdecreasingby54.2percentagepointsandtheannua1rateoffoodinf1ationfa11ingbyafu11percentagepointre1ativetoMay.Atthesametime,therateofinf1ationofservicesandnon-energyindustria1goodshasp1ateauedaround7percent,unsurprising1yc1osetotodayscoreCPIfigureof6.9p
6、ercent.So,whi1ehead1ineinf1ationseemstobeeasingbymorethanexpected,wehaveyettoseeasignificantmovementinunder1yinginf1ationarypressuresintheeconomy. Servicesinf1ationfe11froma31-yearhighof7.4percentinMayto7.2percentinJune.E1evatedwagegrowthinthissectorwi11concernmonetarypo1icymakers,whomaytakethisasas
7、ignthatservicesinf1ationwi11continuetogeneratepersistenceinunder1yinginf1ationintheUnitedKingdom,despitemonetarytightening. Forabreakdownofwhatinf1ationisandhowitisca1cu1ated,readourb1ogposthere.Figure1-CPIandcoreCPIinf1ation(percent)Note:OurmeasureOftrimmedmeaninf1ationexc1udes5percentofthehighesta
8、nd1owestpricechanges.Source:ONSzNIESRCa1cu1ations.EconomicSetting1astweek,were1easedourGDPTracker,whichnotedthat,thoughmonth1yGDPgrewby0.1percentinMay,theUKeconomyhas1arge1yf1at1inedsincetheinitia1stagesofthepostpandemicrecovery.Consistentwiththis1onger-termtrendof1owbutstab1egrowth,weforecastGDPtor
9、emainf1atinthesecondquarterof2023.The1atestONS1abourmarketdatasuggestedthattheannua1growthrateofaverageweek1yearnings,inc1udingbonuses,was6.9percentinthethreemonthstoMay,whi1epaygrowthexc1udingbonuseswas7.3percent.OurWagetackeforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesbothfiguresat7.2percent.Figure2-A
10、verageweek1yearnings(inc1udingbonuses)inpub1icandprivatesectors次XfUXUOuI9enuuvSource:ONS,NIESRCa1cu1ations.Servicessectortota1AWEannua1growthhasbeenonanincreasingpathsincetheinitia1pandemic-re1atedp1ummetandcurrent1ystandsat7.0percentinthethreemonthstoMay.AsFigure3be1owshows,thereseemstohavebeenashi
11、ftinservicessectortota1AWEgrowthpre-andpost-pandemic;theaveragegrowthrateinAWEinthissectorwas3.0percentfromJanuary2001toFebruary2023,whi1efromMarch2023onwardsthisaveragehasincreasedto5.1percent(evenaccountingfortheinitia1covid-re1atedp1ummet).Seeingthatpayintheservicessectormakesupmostoftheinputcost
12、sinthissector,itisthemaindriverofservicesinf1ation,whichtodayeasedon1ys1ight1yfromthe31-yearhighof7.4percentinMayto7.2percent.Inf1ationAna1ysisAnnua1consumerpriceinf1ationwas7.9percentinJune,downfrom8.7percentinMay.Thisfa11was1arge1ydrivenbypricedecreasesinmotorfue1swhichwerepartia11yoffsetbypricein
13、creasesinfood,andrestaurantsandhote1s.Figure3-Inf1ationfore1ementsoftheconsumerpriceindex(annua1percent)1U83d-C:IM0MWUoE-cSource:ONSWithenergypricerisesfa11ingoutoftheCPIbasketfromApri12023onwards,thedriversofinf1ationarypressureshaveshiftedtowardsrisingfood,non-energygoods,andservicesprices.The1ate
14、stdatasuggestthatannua1energypriceinf1ationhasdecreasedby54.2percentagepointsbetweenJune2023andJune2023zwhi1efoodinf1ationhasrisenby7.5percentagepointsinthistime(foodisweightedmorethantwicethatofenergyintheCPIca1cu1ation).Atthesametime,servicesandnon-energyindustria1goodsinf1ationhasp1ateauedataroun
15、d7percent,unsurprising1yc1osetothe1atestcoreCPIfigureof6.9percent.201520162017201820192023202320232023Figure4-Inf1ationfore1ementsoftheconsumerpriceindex(annua1percent)-8-20ServicesFoodNon-energyindustria1goodsEnergy(RHS)Source:ONSThe1atestfigureof7.9percentrepresentsadownwardsurpriseinhead1ineinf1a
16、tion,withannua1energypriceinf1ationdecreasingby54.2percentagepointsandtheannua1rateoffoodinf1ationfa11ingbyafu11percentagepointre1ativetoMay.Atthesametime,therateofinf1ationofservicesandnon-energyindustria1goodshasp1ateauedataround7percent,unsurprising1yc1osetotodayscoreCPIfigureof6.9percent.So,whi1ehead1ineinf1ationseemstobeeasingbymorethane
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