【行业研报】IMF-发展中国家熟练劳动力和非熟练劳动力替代的弹性：一个有指导意义的技术变革视角（英）.docx

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1、INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDTheE1asticityofSubstitutionBetweenSki11edandUnski11ed1aborInDeve1opingCountries:ADirectedTechnica1ChangePerspectiveA1bertoBeharWP/23/165IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPa

2、persarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023AUGWP/23/1652023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperWesternHemisphereDepartmentTheE1asticityofSubstitutionBetweenSki11edandUnski11ed1aborInDeve1opingCountries:ADirectedTechnic

3、a1ChangePerspectivePreparedbyA1bertoBehar*AuthorizedfordistributionbyDingDingAugust2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,its

4、ExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Wedeve1opamode1ofendogenousski11-biasedtechnica1changeindeve1opingcountries.Theendogenousresponsetoariseinski11supp1ycountersthetraditiona1substitutioneffectanddampensitsro1einreducingwageinequa1ity.Themode1re-enforcesconsensusestimatesofthee1asticityofsubstit

5、utionbetweenmore/1esseducatedworkersbyreconci1ingdispersedexistingestimates.Ita1sorationa1izesestimatesthatwerehithertodeemedimp1ausib1eormode1-inconsistent.Weproducenewestimatesfordeve1opingcountrieswithanove1g1oba1pane1(findingva1uesatorjustabove2)andwith1atinAmericandatathatfaci1itatesana1ysisofd

6、ynamics(whichreduceestimatesto1.7-1.8).Wethereforeshednew1ightonaparameterthatiscrucia1forinequa1ity,growth,andotherkeymacroeconomicquestions.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Behar,A.(2023),Thee1asticityofsubstitutionbetweenski11edandunski11ed1aborindeve1opinguntries:adirectedtechnica1changeperspective,1IMFWP/23

7、/165JE1C1assificationNumbers:I2OJ23J24J31015033Keywords:Ski11-biasedtechnica1change;e1asticityofsubstitution;ski11premium;inequa1ity;growthaccountingAuthorsE-Mai1Address:abehar(imf.orgWORKINGPAPERSThee1asticityofsubstitutionbetweenski11edandunski11ed1aborindeve1opingcountries:adirectedtechnica1chang

8、eperspectivePreparedbyA1bertoBehar1Thisversion:August2023.Previousversion:December2009.1wou1d1iketothankMargaretStevens,Car1oPizzine11i,andvariousseminarandconferenceparticipants.1IntroductionThee1asticityofsubstitutionbetweenski11edandunski11ed1abor,iscrucia1fordeterminingvariationsinincomewithinan

9、dacrosscountries.Bymakingski11edworkers1essscarcere1ativetounski11edworkers,expandededucationcanreducewagedifferentia1swithinacountry.Theeffectofsuchapo1icydependson.A1owerva1uefortendstoresu1tinabiggerreductionininequa1ity,makingtheparametercrucia1forstudiesofthepotentia1contributionofincreasesinth

10、esupp1yofeducatedworkerstoreducingorcontaininginequa1ity.Fernandez&Messina(2018),Manacordaet.a1(2010).Inreverse,ahigherva1ueformeansthatanexogenouschangeinre1ativefactorprices,suchasariseintheminimumwage,wou1dhaveabiggereffectonthedemandforski11edandunski11edworkers(Hamermesh,1993).Thisstudyispartof

11、abroaderbodyofworkoninputsubstitution.Karabarbounis&Neiman(2013)exp1ainpartof1abor,sdecreasingshareofincomeintermsofcheapercapita1andthee1asticityofsubstitutionbetween1aborandcapita1.Oneargumentforwhyeducationshou1dbesubsidizedbythestateisthattheremaybepositiveexterna1itiestoeducation,whichcanbemeas

12、uredbycomparingthereturnstoeducationestimatedwithmacroeconomicdatatothosefrommicroeconomicearningsfunctions.Suchcomparisonsre1yon(Teu1ins&vanRens,2008).Po1icy-makersoftenvieweducationa1attainmentasawaytoimproveovera11income,yetthegrowthaccounting1iteratureinc1udesanunsett1eddebateonhumancapitasimpor

13、tance,inpartbecauseofsensitivityofresu1tsto.K1enow&Rodriguez-C1are(1997),Hendricks(2002),Case11i(2005),Jones(2014),Case11i&Ciccone(2019).a1soinformsthepotentia1forski11-biasingeffectsoftradeandtheeffectsofimmigrationonwages.Epifani&Gancia(2008),Thoenig&Verdier(2003),Borjas,Grogger&Hanson(2012).Initi

14、a1attemptstoestimatethee1asticityproducedwi1d1ydispersedresu1ts.Forexamp1e,Freeman(1986)documentsva1uesofupto1000.Authorssubsequent1ycoa1escedaroundava1ueofabout1.5attributab1etoKatz&Murphy(1992)andre-enforcedbysubsequentstudies(Ciccone&Peri,2005).OneconcernisthattheseU.S.basedstudiesmaynotbereprese

15、ntativeemergingmarketanddeve1opingeconomies(EMDEs),whichtendtohavehigherinequa1ityandwhicharethefocusofthegrowthaccounting1iterature.Havrenek,Irsova,1as1opova&ZeynaIOVa(2023)(henceHI1Z)notetheaverageofavai1ab1eestimatesishigherandthattherangeisconsiderab1e.Moreover,theyarguethatpub1icationbiasexc1ud

16、esmanyestimatesthataredeemedimp1ausib1yhighoroftheincorrectsign.Usingmeta-studymethodstocontro1forpub1icationbiaspushestheaveragee1asticityto10.Contro11ingforeconometricbiasinestimationbringsthisva1uebackdownpartia11yto3.7witha95%confidenceinterva1ofabout18.Forthesubsetofdeve1opingcountries,theaveragee1asticityis2.1withaninterva1of3.Theprimarycontributionofthispaperistoexp1ainhowawiderangeofestimates