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1、OBISBISPapersNo139Digita1safetynets:aroadmapbyA1exanderKaraivanov,BenoitMojon,1uizAPereiradaSi1vaandRobertMTownsendMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentSeptember2023JE1c1assification:GIO,G521G231D82,D53,016.Keywords:digita1financia1p1atformsandcontracts,safetynets,targetedtransfers,risksharing,financia1inc1

2、usion,1imitedcommitment,privateinformation.Theviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessari1ytheviewsoftheBIS.Thispub1icationisavai1ab1eontheBISwebsite(BankforInternationa1Sett1ements2023.A11rightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortrans1atedprovidedthesourceIsstated.ISSN1682-7651(on1ine)ISB

3、N978-92-9259-683-5(on1ine)Digita1safetynets:aroadmapThispaperref1ectstheviewsoftheauthorsandnotnecessari1ytheviewsoftheBIS.Wearegratefu1toA1bertPierres-Tejadaforexce11entresearchassistance.Townsendacknow1edgesfundingfortheThaidatafromtheBankofThai1and,theThai1andResearchFund,andtheEuniceKennedyShriv

4、erNationa1InstituteofChi1dHea1thandHumanDeve1opment(NICHD)(grantnumberRO1HD027638).Weacknow1edgefruitfu1discussionswithandcommentsfromparticipantstowebinarsattheBISandtheIMFandfromKatharinaBergant,BenjaminCarton,GongChen,JonFrost,1eonardoGambacorta,VitorGaspar,Pierre-O1ivierGourinchas1BenedictNo1ens

5、andHyunSongShin.+SimonFraserUniversity(SFU),akaraiyasfuxa*BankforInternationa1Sett1ements(BIS)zbenoit.mojonbis.organd1uiz.apereirabis.orgMassachusettsInstituteofTechno1ogy(MT),rtownsenmit.eduA1exanderKaraivanov+,BenoitMojon1,1uizAPereiradaSi1vatandRobertMTownsend5AbstractWeshowhownewdigita1techno1og

6、iescanbeusedtoimprovesafetynetsforinsuranceagainstidiosyncraticandaggregateincomerisks,tai1oredtodea1specifica11ywithwe11-knownobstac1estotrade:1imitedcommitment,mora1hazard,unobservedstatesandpaymenttransactioncosts.Wei11ustratethegainsfromincentive-compatib1evo1untaryrisk-sharingschemesforgroupsof

7、economicagents,egThaihouseho1dsandSpanishfirms.Weassessthecurrent1ybest-fittingfinancia1regimewithineachgroupandquantify1argewe1faregainsfromimprovedinsurancedespitetheobstac1estotrade.Ourmethodscou1dbeapp1iedinvariouscontextstofosterfinancia1inc1usionandcomp1ementexistingbroadersafetynetmechanismsi

8、naCoSt-effectiveway.Weprovideb1ueprintsfordesignandimp1ementation.Keywords:digita1financia1p1atformsandcontracts,safetynets,targetedtransfers,risksharing,financia1inc1usion,1imitedcommitment,privateinformation.JE1c1assification:GIO,G52,G23,D82,D53,016.1. IntroductionIncomerisk,thatis,vo1ati1ityofinc

9、omef1owsbecauseofi11ness,job1oss,macroeconomicshocksetc,remainspreva1entforhouseho1ds,firms,regionsandcountries.Variouspo1iciesandinstitutionshaveemergedtocurbtheserisks,rangingfromfinancia1marketsthata11owsavingandborrowing,toprivateandpub1icsocia1insuranceandsafetynetsforunemp1oyment,hea1thrisksan

10、do1dage.Thesepo1iciesoriginatedintoday,sdeve1opedcountries,andthenwereextendedtoemerginganddeve1opingeconomies(EMDEs).Adistinctionshou1dbemadebetweenbroadersocia1po1iciesdatingbacktothe19thcenturyandsignificant1yexpandedandforma1isedaftertheUSNewDea1inthe1930sandthe1egis1ationfo11owingtheBeveridgeRe

11、portinBritaininthe1940s;andsocia1safetynetsthatbecamepopu1arduringthe1990s,aimedatmitigatingtheimpactonthepoorwhendeve1opingcountriesandtheBrettonWoodsinstitutionsbeganimp1ementingstructura1adjustmentpo1icies.Amongthe1atterprogrammesareconditiona1cashtransfers(CCTs)tohouseho1dse1igib1eforapecuniaryt

12、ransferfromthegovernmentwhentheirincomeisbe1owacertain1eve1andsatisfiescertainconditions.Anotherimportantpo1icydeve1opmentcentredaroundincreasingfinancia1inc1usiontothepoor,iecreatingincentivesand/orregu1ationsthatimprovetheiraccesstousefu1andaffordab1efinancia1servicesofferedbyarangeofcompetingprov

13、iders(seePrincessMaxima(2010),CPMIandWor1dBank(2016).Arguab1y,theyhaveprovedreasonab1yeffectiveinsmoothinghouseho1dincomeandexpenditureandinstabi1isingconsumptionandproductiveinvestmentbythese1f-emp1oyedandsma11andmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs).Thiswasespecia11ythecaseafterWor1dWarII,fromthe1950sandu

14、ptothe1980sinbothadvancedeconomiesandEMDEs.Empirica1evidenceindicatesthatthesepo1iciescontributedtothedec1ineinpovertyandinequa1ityduringthisperiod.SeeMore11ieta1(2015)andA1varedoandGasparini(2015).However,manycountrieshaveseenthetrendinincomeinequa1ityreversedirectionsincethe1980s.There1ationbetwee

15、nthe1eve1ofincomeandincomeinequa1ityhastakenaU-shapedcurveSeeAtkinsonandBourguignon(2015),pviii.withasteadyincreaseininequa1ityofopportunities,incomeandwea1th,aswe11asingeographica1inequa1ity(egaccesstopub1icgoodswithinthesamejurisdiction).Moreover,thisincreasepart1yref1ectsthatindividua1sandhouseho

16、1dswith1owerski11sorincomesaresubjecttoacombinationof1argeridiosyncraticandmacroeconomicincomerisks.IncountriesthataremembersoftheOrganisationforCooperationandDeve1opment(OECD),noton1yistheaverageunemp1oymentrateof1ow-ski11edworkershigher,butita1soincreasesbymoreinrecessions,imp1yingahysteresisinincomeinequa1ity(PereiradaSi1vaeta1(2023),InEMDEs,wherefinancia1marketsandsocia1safetynetsare1essdeve1oped,idiosyncraticregiona1orc