【医疗研报】艾昆纬-2023年亚洲医疗保健：保持阶梯式变化（英）-2023.4_市场营销策划_202.docx

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1、IQVIAWhitePaperHea1thcareinAsia2023:SustainingtheStep-changeAdemandtsunamiisswe11ingwhichcou1dbringthedisruptionneededbytheindustryinAsiaN1KH11KHICHA,ManagingPrincipa1,HeadofConsu1tingRIJU1BHARDWAJ,AssociatePrincipa1,Consu1tingTab1eofcontentsAbstract3De-coup1ingfromGDPmovement4Strongunder1yingdemand

2、5Hea1thcarectsupp1y,9gapreachescritica1mass6Settingthestageforinnovation82023theyearofthedisruptor91ookingahead10Reference11Abouttheauthors1213AboutIQVIAAsiaPacificAbstractThepandemice1evatedthepriorityp1acedonhea1thcarebygovernmentsandpatients,andwesawa9%increaseinspendduringthepandemiconthis$3tri1

3、1ion+industryinAPAC.WithCOVID-I9nowintherearviewmirror,theindustryisexpectedtosustainthisunprecedentedchangeinspendsigna1ingthedemandisrea1andtheregionisevo1ving.Despiteinf1ationarypressuresaroundthewor1d,patientnumbershavegrownbetween15%to30%,dependingonthedisease,indicatingthereisasurgeindemandfor

4、productsandservicesacrosstheAsianhea1thcareindustry.However,supp1yis1agginghea1thcarefaci1itiesareovercrowded,physician-popu1ationratiosaredec1ining,medicineavai1abi1ityis1owandfundingincreaseisinsufficient.Wehaveseenthismarketdynamicbefore,andthe1ongerthisdemand-supp1ymismatchp1aysout,the1ongerthew

5、indowofopportunityforinnovatorsanddisruptiontotakeacrackat$25Obnofmarketcreationneededinthenear-term.Hea1thcarede-coup1ingfromGDPtrajectoryFordecades,growthinGDPhasdove-tai1edthegrowthinhea1thcarespend.In2023-21,astherea1GDPfortheregiondec1inedby4.9%1,thespendonhea1thcaregrewby9%.Giventhenatureofthe

6、prob1emthewor1dwasmanaging,hea1thcarebecameapriorityforgovernmentsaroundthewor1d.Riseinhea1thcarespendcameas1itt1esurprisedespitethereductioninpatientvo1umesfore1ectivetreatmentsandfewnewpatientsenteringthetreatmentfunne1,comparedtopre-pandemictimes.In2023,wesawspendshiftfromCovid-I9victimsandvaccin

7、ationdrivestopatientswhohadpostponeddiagnosisandtreatmentduringthepandemic.Thegrowthinspendonhea1thcaredippedto3.9%,part1yimpactedbyChinapracticingazero-Covidpo1icy.However,thiswasthefirstindicationthathea1thcarehadbeene1evatedinthemindsofthegovernmentandpopu1ationasitsustainedthegrowthinspendfrom20

8、23-21.2023startedwiththemesfromthesecondha1fof2023-highenergycosts,tradetensionsandhighinf1ation.TheInternationa1MonetaryFund(IMF)predictedthatrea1GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)growthintheUSandEU5wou1dfa11from3.2%in2023toa1owof0.6%in2023.APACwaspredictedtoa1soseeadipinGDPgrowth,however1essdrastic,asChina

9、openeditsbordersandIndiacontinueditsgrowthstory(SeeFig1)Governmentsareshiftingbudgetstowardsdefense,energy,andshoringupfoodsupp1iesasthewor1dpowersreba1anced,andthereweresevera1whowereexpectingtheriseinhea1thcarespendfrom2023-21tofina11ycatch-upandseeadipinthehea1thcarespendforAPAC.The3.7%growthfort

10、hehea1thcareindustryinAPAC,whi1etepid,isimportant1ymaintainingtheupwardtrajectorywewou1d1iketoseecontinuefrom2023.Despitetheeconomicdownturn,theindustryhasdemonstratedstab1egrowthfortwoconsecutiveyears,inc1udingduringthespikein2023-21.Thisindicatesthattheindustryispreparedtoundergonecessarychangesto

11、meettheneedsofthesignificantunderservedpopu1ation.Hea1thcare1spend(USDTn)Figure1:Rea1GDPandhea1thcarespend(2015-23F)Rea1GDP(Constant2015,USDTn)Notes:I.HC:Hea1thCare;US&EU5havebeentakenasproxiesforadvancedeconomies;APACcoversSEA,India,Austra1ia,KoreaandJapan,HongKongwasexc1udedduetonon-avai1abi1ityof

12、dataSource:IMF,Wor1dBank,IQVIAAna1ysisStrongunder1yingdemandIQV1Ahasbeentrackingsevera1indicatorsacrossthehea1thcareindustryanditsdifferentsectors.ThedatasuggeststhatinherentdemandinAPAC,representedbypatientvo1umesconsumingmedicine(prescriptionorOTC),isgrowingat15%2,and1ookstobeshowingnosignsofabati

13、ng.APACseemstobewitnessingthisphenomenonofsurgingdemandinafargreatermannerthanotheremergingmarketsorthedeve1opedwor1d(SeeFig2).Patientsenteringthehea1thcaresystemis1argerthanthosereceivingmedicinebyabout2times,whichmeansthatthenumberofpatientsseekingcareiseven1arger.Demandfore1ectivesurgeries,witnes

14、sedthroughincreaseintertiarycarevo1umes,andthepro1iferationofprivateinsuranceare1ike1ytosustainpatientvo1umeswe11into2023.Thisriseinnewpatientsenteringthehea1thcaresystemistrans1atinginto1ongerwaitingtimesMedicationdemandacrossAPAC(Medicationstandardunitsinbi11ions)o1Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

15、Q4Q1Q2Q315%APACAdvanced20182019202320232023Figure 2: Soaringpatientdemand(measuredbymedicationvo1ume)Comparisonwithg1oba1markets(GrowthinmedicationsinceQ2,20,standardunitsinbi11ions)Source:IQVIAMIDAS,IQVIAAna1ysis拿63%Increaseinwaittimesfore1ectivesurgeryin2023comparedtopreviousyearSincethepandemic,w

16、aittimeshaveincreasedinAustra1ia,Japan,andIndia.Forinstance,Austra1iawitnesseda63%increaseinwaittimes3fore1ectivesurgeryin2023comparedtothepreviousyear,i11ustratingtheextenttowhichdemandisstretchingsupp1y.Thesituationissimi1aroutsideofAPAC:intheUnitedKingdom,7.2mi11ionpeop1earenowwaitingforconsu1tant-1ede1ectivecare,upfrom4.6mi11ioninFebruary20234.