Na spers与Prosus：新兴市场消费科技具有增长价值.docx

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1、/HSBCGlobal Research12 April 2021Naspers and ProsusEquitiesInternetEM consumer tech: therefs value in growthEmerging markets Prosus remains among the most attractive ways to get EMconsumer tech exposure, with discount to NAV at 33% Food delivery has gone from a hidden gem to the most valuablevertica

2、l (ex Tencent stake), now worth 3x their total investment We like the increase in capital deployed (USD4bn in FY21);increase Prosus TP to EUR120 (from EUR112), Naspers toZAR4,900 (from ZAR4,800); both rated BuyThe digital journey has just begun. In the last decade, techs influence has gonefrom a few

3、 discretionary purchases to the entire consumer wallet. See Spotlight: EM exAsia consumer tech (12 April 2021). While the US is still digitally under-penetrated, EMis early in the first innings. Despite twice as many the internet users and 40% of GDPcompared to the US, EM ex Asia consumer tech marke

4、t cap is at c13% of the UScomparable. Strong potential for growth and investment opportunities in EM ex Asia,combined with their investments in India, bode well for Prosuss ex-Tencent portfolio.We like the intensity in capital deployment and the cash raised from sale of a 2%stake in Tencent Prosus d

5、eployed USD4bn in FY21 (ended 31 March 2021), higher thanthe average of USD2.2bn in the previous three years. The company raised USD14.6bn on8 April, which we think could be deployed in multiple opportunities within its core verticalsand potentially additional buybacks. Tencent is now c80% of the NA

6、V and at thisinvestment pace, could go to 70% in 10 years. Prosus is trading at a 33% discount toNAV and Naspers at 48%. Drivers to narrowing the discount include corporaterestructuring at Naspers (lowering stake in Prosus), strong pace of investments (and/orasset sale/listings), and a standing poli

7、cy of buybacks when discounts widen.We value the food delivery portfolio at USD17.6bn, IRR higher than 45%. From beinga part of the Ventures segment until FY18, food delivery is now the most valuable e-commerce vertical. Naspers/Prosus has invested a total of USD5.5bn in this vertical andwe value th

8、e portfolio at USD17.6bn (1.2x FY22e GMV). Alternative data-points support avalue above USD15bn: Delivery Heros current market cap of USD35bn, Swigg/s recentfunding round valuing it at USD5bn (Bloomberg, 5 April), and JustEat Takeaway turningdown an offer to buy its 33% stake in iFood, which would v

9、alue the company aboveUSD8bn. iFood stood out in our proprietary Brazil consumer survey. iFood s brandpreference came in the strongest across 15 categories, ahead of majors like Netflix instreaming, MELI in e-commerce, and McDonalds in fast food (see charts on page 4). Weraise our TP for Prosus to E

10、UR120 (from EUR112) and Naspers to ZAR4,900 (fromZAR4,800) based on higher Tencent closing price and food delivery valuation.Ravi JainSenior Analyst, EM Consumer & RetailHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.ravijain+ 1 212 525 3442Andrew Porteous*, CFACo-Head, European Consumer Retail ResearchHSBC Bank plcandr

11、ew.porteous+44 20 7992 4647Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations2021 Institutional Investor surveyVoting open 12th April - 7th May 2021If you value our service and insights, please voteClick here to voteKey changes

12、to ratings and estimatesRatingOldNewUpside/downsideMarket cap(USDm)3m ADTV(USDm)CompanyTickerCurrencyCurrent _priceTPOldNewProsusPRX NAEUR93.96BuyBuy112.00120.0027.7%181,678258NaspersNPN SJZAR3,485.00BuyBuy4,800.004,900.0040.6%102,862299/ Research has acquired the Ex tel surveySource: HSBC, Bloomber

13、g. Priced as ofctose at 07 April 2021Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.View HSBC Global Research at:https :/www. re

14、search, hsbc. comContentsKey charts3Prosus core verticals5Food service: Disruptor - Delivery platforms6Financial services: Disruptor - FinTech11Home/Auto: Disruptor - Classifieds18Non-food retail: Disruptor - marketplaces23Naspers/Prosus estimate revisions, valuation, and risks29Financials & valuati

15、on: Prosus NV33Financials & valuation: Naspers34Disclosure appendix3539DisclaimerKey chartsProsus - discount to NAV (weekly)Source: Refin如 Datastream, HSBC; Prosus IPO was on 11 September 2019Naspers - discount to NAV (quarterly)Source: Refinibv Datastream. HSBCFood delivery IRR higher than 45% (cumulative investments b