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1、1iberianWomenCount:EvidencefromaMacrosimu1ationoftheGenderDividendMaheshKarra,1NIitjaDe1Bonoj2JoshuaWi1de,3WendyCunningham,2SarikaGupta21: FrederickS.PardccSchoo1ofG1oba1Studies,Boston,MA,USA2: Wor1dBank,Washington,DC,USA3: MaxP1anckInstituteofDemographicResearch,Rostock,GermanyKeywords:gender,gende
2、rdividend,women,sempowerment,inequa1ity,demography,humancapita1,emp1oyment,timea11ocation,economicgrowth,macrosimu1ation,1iberiaJE1:JIIJI6,J22,J24,E24,0401 IntroductionWomenarethebedrockoftheeconomyandofsocietyinIJberia.Asof2016,womencomprise50percentofthe1iberian1aborforceQohanssendaSi1va,2023),sup
3、p1ying76percentof1aborforcashcropproductionand93percentofthe1aborforfoodcropproduction(Go12009).About80percentofwomenownsma11enterprises,comparedto57percentofmenQohanssendaSi1va,2023).Inaddition,womenin1iberiaareresponsib1eforoverseeinghouseho1dactivities,particu1ar1yinrura1communitieswheretheyengag
4、einhouseho1dfoodsecurityandareresponsib1eforcaregivingofchi1drenandotherhouseho1dmembers.Despitetheircontributionstoeconomicproduction,womenaresystematica11yexc1udedfromfu11ycontributingsincetheyarec1usteredin1owerproductivityand1owerearningsectorsofthe1abormarket.Approximate1y86percentofwomenareemp
5、1oyedinpettytradeorintheagricu1turesector,whichwi11remaina1owproductivitysectorunti1broadermarketreformsareimp1ementedQohanssendaSi1va,2023).About94percentofwomenareinforma11yemp1oyedcomparedto79percentofmen(1iberiaInstituteforStatisticsandGeo-InfbrmationServices,2015).Amongthenon-farmse1f-emp1oyed,
6、55percentofenterprisesareownedbywomen,thoughtheirenterprisesaresma11erand1esswe11estab1ishedthanthoseofmen,and1essthan5percentofwomenho1dforma1sectorjobs(JohanssendaSi1va,2023).In1iberia,womenearnabout14percent1essthanma1ecounterpartswithsimi1arski11sandengagedinsimi1arwork.1iberianwomen,s1imitedeco
7、nomiccontributionsarcduetoarangeofdisadvantages.Women1agbehindmeninhumancapita1accumu1ation,whichismarkedbysignificantdisparitiesineducationa1attainmentdespiterecentprogressinincreasinggir1s,schoo1ing.Themedianyearsofschoo1ingis3.4yearsforwomencomparedto6.5yearsformen.Thethreatofvio1ence1ikewiseimpe
8、desthemovementofwomenforeconomic,educationa1andcivicactivities(Gaussmaneta1,forthcoming).Ferti1ityin1iberiaisre1ative1yhighat4.2birthsperwomanofreproductiveage,and30percentofIJberianwomenhavetheirfirstchi1dbeforetheageof18(Cunningham,eta12023).Womenreceive1essfinancia1creditandownfewerphysica1assets
9、and1and.Thecha11engesthatwomenfacetoresourceownership,schoo1ing,andbetterhea1tharecompoundedbyaweakinfrastructure,restrictivesocia1norms,andpoorinstitutions.Despitee1ectingthefirstfema1eHeadofStateinAfrica,womenin1iberiaremainsignificant1yrestrictedintermsoftheirre1ativecapacityfordecision-makingand
10、sociopo1itica1autonomy;forexamp1e,on1y16percentofwomenwhoaremarriedorinaunionmaketheirownchoicesovertheircontraceptiveuseandhea1thcare(1iberiaInstituteofStatisticsandGeo-InfbrmationServices(1ISGIS),2014),andwomenon1yho1d12percentofnationa1Par1iamentaryseatsin1iberia(WoHdBank,2023).Women,sseveredisad
11、vantagein1iberiabegsthequestionastowhere1iberiawou1dbeintermsofdeve1opmentifwomenweretohavesimi1arpo1itica1,socia1,andeconomicopportunitiesasmen.Therea1izationofeconomicpotentia1throughincreasedinvestmentsinwomenandgir1s,a1soknownastheugenderdividend,emphasizesthatsocietiescou1dbemoreproductiveandeq
12、uitab1eifgendergaps,particu1ar1yinthe1abormarket,werec1osed.G1oba1estimatesofthegenderdividendhaveindicatedthathundredsoftri11ionsofdo11arshavebeen1ostasaresu1tofpersistingsocia1,po1itica1,andeconomicgendergaps(WOdoneta1.,2023).Indeed,theGovernmentof1iberia,cii1society,and1iberiancitizensrecognizeth
13、econtributionsthatwomenhavemade,andcanmake,tosociety,butthedecision-makersareyettoa11ocatepub1icresourcesandeffortstosubstantia11yaddressthegendergapsthatareho1ding1iberiaback.ItsVision2030documentidentifies“asocietyofgenderequity.andopportunitiesfora11.Thedeve1opmentp1anfor2018-2023a1sorecognizedth
14、eneedtoaddressgendergapsasameanstoreducepovertyandcreateprosperity(GovernmentoftheRepub1icof1iberia2018),butprogresshasbeens1owerthanhoped.Abetterappreciationofthe1ossesincurredbyinactionmayhe1ptospurgreaterinvestments.Thisstudyintendstoquantifytheeconomiccostsofexc1uding1iberianwomenfromproductiveo
15、pportunitiesbyestimatingthebenefitsfromc1osingkeygendergaps.Wepositthat1iberianwomen,scurrentcontributionsareunder-va1uedinthepo1icy-makingprocess,andthatsocia1,po1itica1,andinstitutiona1discriminationagainstwomencreatesaneconomiccostnoton1ytowomenindividua11y,buta1sotosocietyat1arge.Toquantifythecu
16、rrenteconomiccontributionsofwomenin1iberia,Weadaptthemacrosimu1ationmode1deve1opedbyCanning,Karra,andWi1de(2017),hereafterreferredtoasCKW2017,toconstructamode1ofthegenderdividendinwhichWe1)estimatetheeconomicreturnstoc1osinggendergaps,particu1ar1yinthe1abormarket;and2)incorporatetheva1ueofwomen,sunpaidanddomesticworkintoourestimateofproduction.ThisdiffersfromWodoneta1(2023)inthreeprincip1eways.First,thispaperusesamacrosimu1ationmode1thatexp1icit1ymode1stheint
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