行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度gdp跟踪器摆脱低增长趋势所需的结构变革英20235.docx

《行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度gdp跟踪器摆脱低增长趋势所需的结构变革英20235.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《行业报告国家经济和社会研究所月度gdp跟踪器摆脱低增长趋势所需的结构变革英20235.docx（11页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchNIESRMonth1yGDPTrackerStructura1ChangeNeededtoEscape1ow-GrowthTrendPau1aBejaranoCarboandJoannaNowinska12thMay2023“TodaysdatasuggestthatCDPgrewby0.1percentinthefirstquarterof2023comparedtothefourthquarterof2023,in1inewithourforecastpub1ishedin1astmonthstrac

2、ker.Encouraging1y,theservices,production,andconstructionsectorsa11sawquarter-on-quartergrowth-afurthersignthattheeconomyasawho1eisexhibitingmoreresi1iencethanprevious1ythought.Thoughmonth1yCDPfe11by0.3percentinMarchfo11owingnogrowthinFebruary,high-frequencydatasuggestthatmonth1yCDPwi11bouncebackstro

3、ng1yinApri1,1ike1ydrivenbystrongservicesperformance.Itisworthbearinginmind,however,thatmonth1yCDPremainson1y0.1percentaboveitsFebruary20231eve1-whatweareseeingatthestartofthisyearis(we1come)Iowgrowth,ratherthanamuch-needed,jump-startt.t,Pau1aBejaranoCarboAssociateEconomist,NIESRMainpoints Month1yGDP

4、fe11by0.3percentinMarch2023zfo11owingf1atgrowthinFebruary.Thismonth1yfigurewasdrivenbyafa11inserviceswhichoffsetmonth1ygrowthinconstructionandproduction. GDPgrewby0.1percentinthefirstquarterof2023re1ativetothepreviousthreemonths,in1inewithourmostrecentforecast.Asshowninfigure1be1ow,theUKeconomyhas1a

5、rge1yf1at1inedfo11owingtheinitia1stagesofpost-pandemicrecovery;todaysmonth1yGDPisestimatedtobeon1y0.1percentaboveitspre-pandemic(February2023)1eve1.AswestressinOUr1ateStUKEconomicOvt1ook,forUKeconomicperformancetojump-start,intoaneweraofhighoutputgrowthzstructura1changewi11beneeded. Weexpectthatmont

6、h1yGDPwi11bouncebackinApri1,growingby0.3percentre1ativetoMarch,drivenbygrowthinservices.Indeed,theS&PG1oba1/CIPSUKServicesPMIreportedanoptimisticba1anceof55.9inApri1,upfrom52.9inMarch.SurveyedbusinessesnotedasustainedriseinconsumerspendinginApri1,especia11yinthetrave1,tourismand1eisuresub-sectors.Ho

7、wever,acombinationofhighdemandandsti11-highinputcostsmeantthatbusinessescontinuedtoreportpassingonhighercoststoc1ients,1eadingtoanacce1erationintherateofpriceincrease-thisisconcerninggiventheincreasingembeddednessofinf1ationintheeconomy. ForacomprehensivesummaryandforecastoftheUKeconomy,p1easeseeOUr

8、IatestUKE8omicOUt1OOopub1ishedtoday.Figure1-UKGDPEconomicsettingInourDreViOUSGDPtracker,pub1ishedon13Apri1,weobservedthatmonth1yGDPremainedf1atinFebruary,drivenbygrowthinconstruction-enab1edbygoodweatherconditions-beingoffsetbycontractionsinservicesandproduction.GDPgrewby0.1percentinthethreemonthsto

9、Februarycomparedtothepreviousthreemonths.Thedatathusremainedbroad1yconsistentwiththe1onger-termtrendof1oweconomicgrowthintheUK.OurIateStUKECOnOmiCOut1ook,pub1ishedtodayzhigh1ightsthatdespiterecentpositivenews,wethinkGDPgrowthwi11remainc1osetozeroin2023.Weforecastannua1GDPgrowthof0.3percentin2023,com

10、paredto2023(whichsawannua1GDPgrowthof4.1percent).Thisf1at1iningoftheUKeconomyisduetomu1tip1efactors,inc1udinghighinf1ation(whichcontinuestoerodehouseho1dandfirmbudgets)andhighinterestrates(whichwi11haveatangib1eimpactondemandinthecomingmonths).Twosomewhatcontradictorymessagesemergefromthisforecast:o

11、ntheonehandztheout1ookiscautious1yoptimistic-itseemsthattheworstoftheenergypriceshockisbehindusandzcontrarytowhatsomemayhaveexpected,theUKwi11avoidfacingarecessioninthenear-term;ontheotherhand,theout1ookremainssubdued-itwi11nonethe1essfee11ikearecessionformanyhouseho1ds,whoweexpectwi11faceanaveragef

12、a11totheirrea1persona1disposab1eincomesofrough1y2percentoverthenextthreeyears.Todaysdatasuggestthatmonth1yGDPfe11by0.3percentinMarchre1ativetoFebruary,drivenbyacontractioninservices.GDPgrewby0.1percentinthefirstquarteror2023zandourear1yforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesGDPgrowingby0.2percent.

13、AswestressintheOut1ook,forUKeconomicperformancetojump-start,intoaneweraofhighoutputgrowth,structura1changewi11beneeded.Forinstance,whi1etherecentBudgetintroducedmeasurestoboostbusinessinvestment,thesemeasureswi11inpracticebemoreofastopgapthanaseriousattemptatreso1vingtheUK,schronicinvestmentdeficit.

14、Abo1dreformtopub1icsectorinvestmentoughttobeconsidered.InourOut1ook,oneproposa1madetothisendisthatofcombiningtheNationa1InfrastructureCommissionandtheUKInfrastructureBankundertheumbre11aofanewNationa1Deve1opmentBank,withanexpandedremitandbudget,totakepub1icinvestmenttoover3percentofGDP.Tofurthercont

15、extua1iseourforecastof0.2percentgrowthinthesecondquarterof2023,figure2comparesspendingandhiringindicatorstopre-pandemic1eve1s,whi1efigure3recordsrecenttrendsinPMIs.Highfrequencyspendingandhiringindicatorshaveremainedbroad1ystab1ethroughout2023zandourhousingindicatorhasseensignificantgrowthsinceMarch

16、.Figure3i11ustratesastrongbounce-backinservicesoutputinApri1zthoughanaemicgrowthinmanufacturingmaycontinuetoweighdownonGDP.Takentogether,thesetwofiguressuggestthattheeconomicout1ookforthesecondquarterof2023isoneofstab1egrowth,but1owerthanthe1onger-termUKtrend.Figure 2 -Spendingandhiringindicators(week1yindices)DebitandcreditcardsOn1inejobadvertsEPCcertificatesfornewdwe11ings(a)Notes:(a)Eng1andandWa1es.Debitandcreditcards(CHAPSba