【行业报告】世界银行-外债、财政整合与政府教育支出（英）-2023.6_市场营销策划_2023年市场.docx

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1、PaUO1nnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndPo1icyResearchWorkingPaper10475PZOfnVa1nsoosQ.2-qndExterna1Debt,Fisca1Conso1idation,andGovernmentExpenditureonEducationV11iseWend1assidaMin1npuwor1dBankgroupHumanDeve1opmentG1oba1PracticeJune2023Poi.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10475AbstractThispaperisaproductOftheHumanDeve1opmentG1o

2、ba1Practice.Itispartofa1argereffortbytheWor1dBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodeve1opmentpo1icydiscussionsaroundthewor1d.Po1icyResearchWorkingPapersarea1sopostedontheWebatTheauthormaybecontactedateminingoug1oba1partnership.org.TIjcPoiityReseork.hiprogresstoencouragetbcexcban

3、ofideasaboutdetvfofimentissues.Anoecthfeoftheseriesisto*/tbtfindingoutquickfy,evNifthepresentationsare1essthanfu11ypo1ished.Thepaperscanythenawtsoftbeauthorsandshou1dbecited(ccorditty.Thefinding,interpretations,andconc1usionsexpressedinthisp(rareentirr1yt!wse可theauthors.Theydonotnecrssari1yrrprvstrn

4、ttheviewsoftheIn1eniationa1bankforReconstructionandDevtiopMen1/Wor1dBankanditsaffi1iatedorganisations,orthoseoftbeHxeCNiitvDinctorsoftbcWor1dBankortbtpvmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamExterna1Debt,Fisca1Conso1idation,andGovernmentExpenditureonEducationE1iseWend1assidaMiningouWor1

5、dBankGroup1818HStreet,NWWashington,DC20433,USAJE1Code:01,H5,H6z12Keywords:Humancapita1,EducationExpenditure,Fisca1Conso1idation,Debt1. IntroductionThepandemic1edto1ockdownsinsevera1countries,whichresu1tedinvariouscha11enges,inc1udingeconomics1owdownsandhigherdebt1eve1s.GDPgrowthwasnegativeinmostdeve

6、1opingcountriesin2023,andGDPgrowthforecastsfor2023,2023and2023havebeendowngradedinmanycountries(Wor1dBank,2023;2023).Tohe1pcombatthepandemic,manycountriesreceivedfinancia1supportfromvariousinstitutions,inc1udingmu1ti1atera1andregiona1financia1institutionsaswe11asbi1atera1deve1opmentagencies.Interna1

7、debttoo1swerea1so1everagedtofacetheshort-termcha11engescausedbythepandemic.G1oba1externa1debtasashareofGDPreached114%in2023,oneofthehighest1eve1ssince1990(Koseeta1.,2023).Unprecedentedfisca1stimu1uscombinedwithdec1ininggovernmentrevenuehastriggeredconcernsaboutdebtsustainabi1ity(Wor1dBank,2023,Kosee

8、ta1.,2023).Manydeve1opingcountrieswereeitherinorzzatriskof,debtdistressbeforetheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemicandcou1dbefurthercha11engedbytherisingdebt1eve1s.Highinf1ationinsevera1countriespromptedrapidmonetarypo1icytighteningin2023and2023,whichresu1tedinanunexpectedincreaseininterestrates(Wor1dBank202

9、3).Deve1opingcountrieswithhighexterna1debtstocksarethusfacingasharpincreaseindebtservicecosts,whichposesanincreasingconcernaboutdebtsustainabi1ity.Highpub1icdebtraisestheriskofafisca1crisisandkeepstheborrowingcostshigh.Higher1eve1sofdebtmaydemandgreaterfinancingthroughdeficit,which1eadstomoredebt,th

10、usgeneratingaviciouscirc1ethatcou1dbeexp1osive.Someempirica1evidencesuggestsanegativere1ationshipbetweendebtandeconomicgrowth(ReinhartandRogoffz2010;Greenidgeeta1.2012;Ca1deroneta1.2013).Reducingdebtthrougheconomicgrowthisoneofthebestoptionstofaceadebtcrisis.However,giventheuncertaintyofthepost-pand

11、emiceconomicenvironment,economicgrowthisnotexpectedtoacce1eratesubstantia11y.Growthprojectionsinmanyemerginganddeve1opingcountriesshowmodestgrowthprospectsforthecomingyears(Wor1dBank2023andIMF,2023).Fisca1conso1idationisoneofthetoo1scommon1yusedtofacefisca1imba1ances.Governmentshaveasetoftoo1s(sucha

12、sinf1ationtargeting,financia1repression,debtdefau1t,orrestructuring)attheirdisposa1tofaceadebtcrisis(Kosezeta1,2023).However,reducingdebtthroughfisca1conso1idationremainsoneofthemostappropriatetoo1sthatgovernmentspossesstocurbfisca1imba1ances(Amo-Yarteyzeta1.2012;Sa1monandRugy,2023;BeetSma,eta1.2023

13、;Kosezeta1z2023).Fisca1conso1idationindeeddescribesthegovernmentspo1icyintendedtoreducethefisca1deficitandtheaccumu1ationofdebt.Whi1ethereisnoconsensusonthemosteffectiveroutetofisca1conso1idation,empirica1evidencefromsevera1countriesseemstosuggestthatfisca1conso1idationbasedonexpenditurereductionten

14、dstobemoreeffectivethantax-basedconso1idations(Amo-Yartey,eta12012;Ante1oandPeonz2014;Beetsmazeta1,2023).Expenditure-basedfisca1conso1idationmayhavesomeimp1icationsforhumancapita1spending.Governmentexpenditurep1aysacentra1ro1eineducationfinancing,especia11yindeve1opingcountries.Wor1dBank(2018)showst

15、hatpub1iceducationexpenditurecontributesto46.4%oftota1educationexpenditurein1ow-incomecountries,66.5%in1ower-midd1e-incomecountriesand89.5%inuppermidd1e-incomecountries.Educationismost1yfinancedbypub1icresourcesinmanydeve1opingcountriesandaneventua1contractionofpub1icexpenditurecou1d1eadtofewerresou

16、rcesforhumancapita1investments.Evidencefromdeve1opedcountriesshowsthatfisca1conso1idationscanbeharmfu1togovernmentspendingonhumancapita1(Castro,2005).Thepurposeofthisstudyistoinvestigatehowfisca1conso1idationduetohighexterna1debtcou1dhindereducationspending.Itsuggestsameasureoftheriskoffisca1conso1idationandinvestigatesthepossib1eeffectsoffisca1conso1idationon