【行业研报】ITIF-超越力量：绿色转型的现实主义路径（英）-2023.7_市场营销策划_重点报告2.docx

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1、BeyondForce:ARea1istPathwayThroughtheGreenTransitionROBINGASTER,ROBERTATKINSON,ANDEDWARDRIGHTORJU1Y2023Tryingtoforceadoptionofc1eanenergywithsubsidies,regu1ations,andexhortationswi11fai1.Theon1yrea1isticwaytospurthegreentransitionistodeve1opc1eantechno1ogiesthatcanreacheffectivepriceandperformancepa

2、ritywithdirtyones.Thenmarketswi11adoptthematsca1e.KEYTAKEAWAYS C1imatechangeisg1oba1,soso1utionsmustbeg1oba1.Inparticu1ar,theymustmeettheneedsof1ow-incomecountrieswheredemandforenergyisrisingfastest,andwhereabi1ityandwi11ingnesstopayagreenpremiumis1owtonon-existent. Thereisnoevidencethatforcingchang

3、ewithregu1ation,subsidies,orexhortationwi11work-andthereisp1entyofevidenceitwon,t.1ow-incomecountrieswi11notadoptc1eanenergyattheexpenseofgrowth.Neitherwi11richercountries. Thesca1eoftheenergytransitionthat,sneededisextraordinary:Itrequiresag1oba1shiftofenergyproduction,distribution,anduseacrossa11i

4、ndustries.Estimatesoftheinvestmentsrequiredrangefrom$84to$275tri11ionby2050. Themarketistheon1y1everpowerfu1enoughtodrivethetransitionatthesca1eneeded-anditwi11on1yworkwhenc1eanenergytechno1ogiescanOutcompetedirtyoneswithoutsubsidiesorregu1ation.So,theymustreachprice/performanceparity(P3). Governmen

5、tsmainjobistohe1pawidearrayoftechno1ogiesgettoP3.Someso1utionsrequiretechno1ogica1breakthroughsorsca1etobecomecompetitive:Governmentsshou1dhe1pthosedoso. Otherswi11neverreachP3;theyareawasteofresourcesthatshou1dbeinvestedintoinnovation.Governmentsshou1drecognizethedifference. Governmentsmustfocusa11

6、theirpo1icyeffortsandtoo1songettingkeytechno1ogiesandso1utionstoP3.Everythinge1seisadistraction.Withouteffectiveparity,a11thesubsidies,regu1ations,andexhortationsinthewor1dwi11befornaught.itif.orgCONTENTSKeyTakeaways1Introduction2Schoo1sofForce7OnceP3IsAchieved,MarketsAretheKey1everforDecarbonizatio

7、n10C1imateChangeIsG1oba1,SotheGreenTransitionMustBeG1oba112WeHaveA11theTechWeNeed-Perhaps,ButNotatP315ForcingPo1iciesThatIgnoreP3Wi11Fai119Regu1ation19Subsidies22Taxes24Exhortation24InnovationtoGettoP329ThePoweroftheP31ens31Conc1usion37Endnotes41INTRODUCTIONThec1imatecrisishasright1yga1vanizedpo1icy

8、andpo1icymakers.Yet,mostpo1icyisbasedonthecorepremisethatgovernmentsmustforcethegreentransitionwithintheirrespectiveborders,becausewithoutthat,theswitchtoc1eanenergywi11nothappen.Byforce/7wemeanasetofpo1iciesthatseektoimposeso1utionsthatabsentforcewou1dnotbebroad1yadopted.Thus,wehavemassivesubsidies

9、ofc1eanenergy;taxesandproposedbansondirtyenergy;regu1atorymandatesforc1eanenergy;andexhortationsoncompaniesandconsumerstogogreen/7inc1udingca11sfordegrowthzIfg1oba1warmingwereasetofnationa1prob1ems,especia11ywherethemainprob1ems1ieinrichWesterncountries,perhapsthisforcingstrategycou1dpossib1yworkzat

10、1eastinsomesectorsandsomeregions.Somecountriesmightbewi11ingtobearsignificantcoststotransitionawayfromfossi1fue1sa1thougheveninrichcountriesthereiswidespreadoppositiontopo1icy-inducedcostincreases.1EvenintheUnitedStates,thereisnoseriousappetitetoadoptmoreexpensivegreenera1ternatives.Butc1imatechange

11、isnotanationa1issue;g1oba1warmingisg1oba1,andassuchrequiresg1oba1so1utionsspecifica11y,so1utionsthatworkina11nations,especia11y1ow-incomecountrieswhereemissionscontinuetogrowrapid1ywithanexpandingpopu1ation,economicgrowth,urbanization,ande1ectrification.Soeffectiveso1utionscanon1ybethosethata11consu

12、mers,corporations,andnationscanadoptwith1itt1eornoextracostorreducedperformance.Thecurrentstrategyofforcingmoreexpensiveandoften1essfunctiona1c1eanenergyso1utionsontouserscannotztherefore,sca1eg1oba11yandisnoteven1ike1ytosca1einwea1thycountriesthataremostfervent1ycommittedtoaddressingc1imatechange.T

13、hisisnotpessimism;thisisrea1ism.Itistimethenforafundamenta11ynewstrategy:Wemustusegovernmentpo1icynottoforcechangebuttoenab1echangethroughthewidespreaddeve1opmentoftechno1ogiesthatmeetthepriceandtheperformance1eve1sofdirtyenergy(price/performanceparity,“orP3).(Seebox1.)Thatcentra1strategyshou1dberef

14、1ectedina11c1imatepo1icies.Withoutthat,thewor1dwi11nottransitiontoc1eanfue1s,nomatterhowmanysevereweathereventsweget,howmanyroadsactivistsb1ockzorhowmanyspeechesc1imateactivistsgive.Butoncetechno1ogydoesgettoP3zthenmarketforces,coup1edwiththewi11ingnessofmostorganizationsandindividua1stowanttohe1pad

15、dressc1imatechange,wi11doa1mosta11thework.Itistimeforafundamenta11ynewstrategy:Wemustusegovernmentpo1icynottoforcechangebuttoenab1echangethroughthewidespreaddeve1opmentoftechno1ogiesthatmeetthepriceandtheperformance1eve1sofdirtyenergy.Otherpo1icies,suchasregu1ations,taxes,orse1ectedsubsidies,cansti1

16、1he1p(forspecificpurposes,aswewi11seeahead)za1thoughtheoddsareagainstthefurtherintroductionof1argesubsidiesevenintheUnitedStates.Mostrichnationsfacedeepfisca1ho1esbecauseoftheexpandingretireepopu1ation,pastexpansionofdebt,ands1owproductivitygrowth.Assuch,theoddsofafisca1surp1usthatcou1dfundexpensivegreensubsidiesareminima1.Andthereisoppositioninmostcountriestohighertaxes(e.g.zcarbontaxes),e