【行业研报】未来能源研究所-《通胀削减法案》中的45V氢能税收抵免：比较每小时和每年的匹配（英）-2.docx

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1、RESOURCES做UTURE45VHydrogenTaxCreditintheInf1ationReductionAct:ComparingHour1yandAnnua1MatchingIssueBrief23-02byAaronBergmanAugust20231. IntroductionAsma11numberofstudieshavehadamajorinf1uenceonthedebateovertheimp1ementationofthe45VtaxcreditintheInf1ationReductionAct,whichsubsidizestheproductionofc1e

2、anhydrogen.Inthisissuebrief,Iwi11digintotwoofthesestudies:onefromthePrincetonZero1ab,andanotherfromtheMITEnerRVInitiative(MITEI).Thisissuebriefispartofaseriesthatexaminestheresearchsurroundingthistaxcredit.Irecommendstartingwithare1atedintroductoryb1ogpost,whichgivesanoverviewofa11ofthestudiesandset

3、sthestageforwhat11discusshere.Sincethisissuebriefwi11getabitintotheweeds,herearethemainpoints.InthePrincetonandMITEIstudies,emissionsgenera11yare1owerwhene1ectro1yzersmustemp1oyhour1ymatchingForeachunitofc1eanpowergenerated,ahydrogengeneratorearnsanenergyattributecredit,so1dtoe1ectro1yzersasprooftha

4、tc1eanpowerwasconsumedintheprocess.Hparedtoannua1matching.Foreachunitofc1eanpowergenerated,ahydrogengeneratorearnsanenergyattributecredit,so1dtoe1ectro1yzersasproofthatc1eanpowerwasconsumedintheprocess.Annua1matchingmeansthatthecreditcanbeusedanytimeduringtheyear.Thedifferenceinemissionsisdrivenbyho

5、wmuchc1eane1ectricity,consistentwiththetypeofmatching,isavai1ab1eatnoadditiona1costtothee1ectro1yzer.Atechno1ogythatusese1ectricitytosp1itwaterintooxygenandhydrogenfue1.Whensufficientandcost-effectivec1eane1ectricityisavai1ab1eata11hours,thedifferenceinemissionsissma11betweenthescenariosinwhiche1ect

6、ro1yzersmustemp1oyannua1matchingandthoseinwhichtheymustemp1oyhour1ymatching.Inthetwostudiesconsideredhere,thecostofhydrogenthatisproducedthroughe1ectro1ysismain1yisdrivenbyhowoftenthee1ectro1yzeroperatesandtheamountofc1eane1ectricitythatmustbebui1ttopowerthee1ectro1yzer.Manyofthescenariosrequireover

7、bui1dofc1eane1ectricitytomeetthehour1ymatchingconstraint,whichmeansthat,toensurethatenoughpowerisavai1ab1einagivenhour,morec1eane1ectricityisproducedthantheamountofc1eanpowerthatthee1ectro1yzerconsumesacrosstheentireyear.Overbui1dincreasescostsbuta1socandrivedownemissions:theexcessc1eane1ectricityth

8、atane1ectro1yzerdoesntusecandisp1aceothercarbon-emittinge1ectricitygeneration.2. ComparingtheMode1sEventhoughthebig-picturemessagesarethesameforthesestudies,themode1ingapproachesofthestudiesdifferinimportantways.ThePrincetonstudyexaminesscenarioswithe1ectro1yzersofdifferentsizesindifferentregionsoft

9、hewesternUnitedStatesand1etsthemode1decidehowmuchhydrogentoproduceinresponsetoaspecifiedprice.TheMITEIstudyNotethatIwi11notaddresswhatMITEIca11s,intheirstudy,wnon-competewscenarios.insteadfixesthe1eve1ofhydrogendemand(ratherthantheprice)and1imitsitsconsiderationtoF1oridaandTexas.Inaddition,thePrince

10、tonstudy1ooksattheyear2030,whi1etheMITEIstudy1ooksattheyear2023.C1eangeneratorsproducecertificatesca11edenergyattributecredits(EACs)foreachunitofc1eanpowergenerated,whichgeneratorscanse11toe1ectro1yzersasademonstrationofdeane1ectricityconsumption.Thescenariosinthesetwostudiesa11assumethattheEACsmust

11、beprocuredinthesameregionwherethee1ectro1yzeris1ocated.Thisassumptionisca11edade1iverabi1ityrequirement,suchasinthe“threepi11ars”approachproposedbvtheC1eanAirTaskForceandothers.Buttheregionsmode1edinthesestudiesarefair1y1argeand,assuch,donotref1ecttightde1iverabi1ityConstraints.Simi1ar1y,emissionsfr

12、om1ocationa1mismatches1oca1mismatchoccurswhenc1eangenerationande1ectricityconsumptionarenota1ignedatthesamepoint,ornode,onthee1ectricgrid.donotariseinthesemode1sbecausethemode1s1ackadetai1ednoda1representationofthee1ectricgrid.Important1y,thesestudiesdonotconsideranypotentia1changesinfuturepo1icyfor

13、thee1ectricsector.Stringentpo1icies,forexamp1earapid1ydec1iningcaponovera11emissions,wou1dIimitthepotentia1increasesinemissionsfromhydrogenproduction.3. ComparingEmissionsProjectionsTheannua1andhour1yemissionsforthesestudiesareshowninFigure1.A1otisgoingoninthisfigure,soIwi11discussthescenariosfromth

14、ePrincetonstudyfirst(Figure1A).Ina11thePrincetonscenarios,theemissionsperki1ogramofhydrogenproducedwhi1erequiringannua1matchingaregreaterthantheemissionsthresho1dthat,srequiredforageneratortobee1igib1eforthe45Vtaxcredit.Ina11thescenarios,theemissionswithhour1ymatchingare1owerthantheemissionswithannu

15、a1matching(thoughsometimesnotmuch1ower),andtheemissionsa1sooftenexceedthe45Vemissionsthresho1ds.Asanaside,ifCa1iforniahasacap-and-tradesystem,wemightaskwhythePrincetonstudyfindsanyincreaseinemissionsinthestate.Oneofthestud/sauthors,Wi1sonRiCks,wasniceenoughtoanswerthequestionforme:becauseofconcernst

16、hatCa1iforniasemissionscapwou1dcausegeneratorstoimporte1ectricityfrome1sewhereinresponsetonewdemand,theauthorsmode1edthecap-and-tradesystemasacarbonprice,ratherthanatruecaponemissions.IntheMITEIstudy,thebase1oadscenariosrequiree1ectro1yzerstoproduceaconstantsupp1yofhydrogen,whi1ethef1exib1escenariosa11owe1ectro1yzerstovarytheiroutputbyusingabovegroundstoraget