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1、FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFedera1ReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(On1ine)AreRea1AssetsOwners1essAversetoInf1ation?EvidencefromConsumerSentimentsandInf1ationExpectationsGeng1i;NitishRanjanSinha2023-058P1easecitethispaperas:1i,Geng,andNitishRanjanSinha(2023).AreRe
2、a1AssetsOwners1essAversetoInf1ation?EvidencefromConsumerSentimentsandInf1ationExpectations/FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2023-058.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFedera1ReserveSystem,https:/doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.058.NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepr
3、e1iminarymateria1scircu1atedtostimu1atediscussionandcritica1comment.Theana1ysisandconc1usionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.Referencesinpub1icationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknow1edgement)shou1dbe
4、c1earedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.AreRea1AssetOwners1essAversetoInf1ation?EvidencefromConsumerSentimentsandInf1ationExpectationsWe thank OIivier Coibion, Rupal Kamdar, Michael Weber, our colleagues at the Federal Reserve and participants at the 2022 Midwest Macro Mee
5、ting Ibr helpful comments. The views presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Board or its staff.+Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551. E-mail: Geng.Lifrb.gov.Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551. E-mail: Nitish.R.Sinh
6、afrb.gov.Geng1itNitishSinha*Federa1ReserveBoardFedera1ReserveBoardJu1y21,2023AbstractUsingdatafromtheUniversityofMichiganSurveysofConsumers,wedocumentasignificantnegativeassociationbetweenconsumersentimentandinf1ationexpectations,contro11ingforprevai1inginf1ationintheeconomy.Wefurthershowthatconsume
7、rsentimentsofhomeownersandstockownersaremoresensitivetoexpectedinf1ationthanthoseofotherconsumers,adisparityatoddswiththenotionthatowningsuchassetsprovideshedgesagainstinf1ation.1everagingdatafromtheSurveyofConsumerExpectations,Wefindthreefactorsthathe1paccountforthisdifference.First,assetsowners,ou
8、t1ookforthebroadeconomyseemstobemoresensitivetotheirinf1ationexpectationsthanotherconsumers,out1ook.Second,assetsownersappeartoexpectincomegrowthto1agspendinggrowthbyawidermarginthanotherconsumersandthatmarginwidenswithinf1ationexpectations.Third,homeowners,inf1ationexpectationstendtobe1essvariab1ea
9、nd1essvo1ati1ethanthoseofrenters,whichmaya11owtheformertohaveagreaterbearingonconsumersentiments.Keywords:Inf1ationexpectations,consumersentiments,homeownership,stockownership,rationa1inattention,inf1ationtargetingJE1Codes:D84,E31,E52,E58,Gi1,G41,R211 IntroductionThenotionthatowningrea1assets(homesa
10、ndstocksforexamp1e)providesahedgeagainstinationdatesbackat1easttoIrvingFisher,andmodernformu1ationsareduetoBodie(1976)andFamaandSchwert(1977).Insofarasinf1ationiswide1ydis1iked(e.g.Shi11er,1997),rea1assetOwnerSmaybe1essaversetoinf1ationbecauseofthishedge.Whi1etheempirica1meritofrea1assetsasaninf1ati
11、onhedgehasbeenasubjectofactiveresearch,much1essisknownregardingtheattitudetowardinf1ationbyassetownershipstatus.Thispaperattemptstobridgethisgapinthe1iteratureandcomparethedis1ikeofinf1ationbetweenrea1assetownersandotherconsumers.Theresu1tswi11inturnshed1ightontheperceivedeffectivenessofrea1assetsas
12、aninf1ationhedge.Inaddition,homeownersandstockownersaccountforthemajorityofaggregateincomeandconsumption.Adeeperunderstandingofhowtheirsentimentsreacttoinf1ationexpectationsmayinformarangeofmonetaryandeconomicpo1icies.Ourana1ysisusestheUniversityofMichiganSurveysofConsumersandfo11owstheextant1iterat
13、ure(e.g.Mishkin,1978;Throop,1992)inusingconsumersentimentsasameasureofthedis1ikeofinf1ation.Inf1ationexperiencedbyconsumerscanvarysignificant1ybecauseoftheirdifferent1ocations,expenditurebaskets,andshoppingbehaviors.Focusingon1yontheeconomy-wideinf1ationindexwi11maskthisimportantheterogeneity.Recent
14、worksurveyedinWebereta1.(2023)high1ightshowexposuretodifferentpricesigna1smay1eadtodistinctinf1ationexpectations.For example, D,Acunto et al. (2021 a) document different price signal exposures by gender, and D,Acunto et al. (202lb) explore the link between consumers, grocery bundles and their percep
15、tion on inflation.Inaddition,Axe1rodeta1.(2018)showthatconsumers,inf1ationexpectations1arge1yref1ectperceptionsoftheinf1ationtheyexperienced.According1y,westudyhowconsumers,sentimentscomovewiththeirowninf1ationexpectations,aswe11aswiththeinf1ationintheeconomy.Webeginwithanana1ysisofthegenera1re1atio
16、nshipbetweeninf1ationexpectationsandconsumersentiment.Some recent papers also explored the relationship between inflation expectations and other aspects of consumer expectations (for example, Candia et al., 2020; Kamdar, 2019).Consistentwiththeconventiona1wisdomthatconsumersdis1ikeinf1ation,wefindapronouncednegativeassociationbetweenanindividua1inf1ationexpectationandhersentimentevenwhenaccountingfortheeffectoftheobservedcu
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