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1、ArabRiskMonitor:AConceptua1FrameworkUNrrtONAT1ONSdESCWASharedProsperityDignified1ifeUnitednationsIWSaIJ1ESCWAOo-a0SharedProsperityDignified1ifeoooaVISIONESGVAzaninnovativeCata1ystforaStabIeJustandf1ourishingArabregionMISSIONCommittedtothe2030Agenda,ESCWA,spassionateteamproducesinnovativeknow1edge,fo
2、stersregiona1consensusandde1iverstransformationa1po1icyadvice.Together,weworkforasustainab1efuturefora11.EESCWAC16.GCP2023TP.2EconomicandSocia1CommissionforWesternAsiaArabRiskMonitor:Aconceptua1frameworkUnitedNationsBeirutQ2023UnitedManOnSA11Hahtsreservedwor1dwidePhotocoDiesandreoroductionsOfexcerot
3、sarea11owedwithDrooercredits.A11aueriesonrightsandIicencesJncIudinQSubsidiarvriahts.shou1dbeaddressedtotheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocia1CommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA).emai1Pub1katiomescwaJunoqThefindings,interpretationsandconc1usionsexpressedInthispub1icationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessari1yr
4、ef1ecttheviewsoftheUnitedNationsoritsofficia1sorMemberStatesThedesignationsemp1oyedandthepresentationOfmateria1inthispub1icationdonotimptheexpressionofanvopinionWhatsoeverontheDartoftheUnitedMationsconcerningtheIeoa1statusofanvcountry,territory,citvorareaorofitsauthorities.orConcerninathede1imitatio
5、nofitsfrontiersorboundaries.1inkscontainedinthisDub1icationareorovdedfortheconvenienceofthereaderandarecorrectatthetimeofissue.TheUnitedNationstakesnorestnsibi1itvforthecontinuedaccuracvofthatinformationorforthecontentofanyexterna1website.Referenceshave,whereverDossib1e.beenverified.Mentionofcommerc
6、ia1namesandDroductsdoesnotimp1ytheendorsementoftheUnitedNatjons.Referencestodo11ars(S)aretoUnitedStatesdo11arsun1essotherwisestated.Symbo1sofUnitedNationsdocumentsarecomposedofcapita11etterscombinedMthhqures.Mentionofsuchasymbo1IndicatesareferencetoaUnitedNationsdocument.UnitedNationsDub1kationissue
7、dbvESCWAtUnitedNationsHouse.RiadE1So1hSquare.P.O.Box:11-8575.Beirut.1ebanon.Website:23-00081Acknow1edgementsThispub1icationwasdeve1opedbytheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocia1CommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA).GovernanceandPreventionC1uster.ThisIsthefirstofathree-paperseriesoftheArabRiskMonitor.ThefirstPape
8、rintroducesanaction-orientedConceotua1frameworktoI1nDaCktheriskofconf1ict,crisisandInstabi1itvwithafocusontheArabreqio.ThesecondDaDerDresentsthemethodo1ooyUtHizedinquantifynqrisk.eDanindifferentmethodsconorma1ize,sca1eandweihtse1ectedIndicators1ThethirdDaPeriStheArabRiskMonitor.Itexp1oresIssuesshaDi
9、nqconfIia.crisisandntabi1itvintheArabreason,measurinavu1nerabi1itiesandresi1ienceacrossriskpathwaysofconf1ict,c1imateanddevek)pment.TheDub1icationswereImo1ementedundertheguidanceofTankA1ami.C1uster1eader.GovernanceandConfIictPrevention.Thevwerediscussedinsevera1iterationsinvo1vingexpertsfromacademia
10、,thinktanksandcivi1service.ThesemeetinasInc1udedThemu1tistakeho1dersubcommitteetosupporttheattainmentoftheSustainab1eDeve1opmentGoa1s(SDCs)InArabConf1ktaffectedcountries(7December2023):TheContributionofDeve1oomenttotheEniovmentofA11HumanRights(8-9November2023);TheSUStainabiIityofnatura1resourcesin1i
11、ghtofc1imateChanQeaoersoectivefromoub1kadministration(12-13December2023)andSustainab1eSo1utionsforHumanSecurity,Reaiona1InitiativeonC1imateSecurityforArabStates(26October2023).ThemainContnbutinqauthorsfromtheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocia1CommissionforWesternAsiawereRaffae1eBertiniJuIieBryn,YoussefCh
12、aitani.Patti1eNahabedianandPietroTornese.ResearchsuDoortwasorovidedbvIa1aE1-AkoumandTa1aAbdu1Samad.KeymessagesTheproposedconceptua1frameworkconsistsofthreeriskpathways(conf1ictc1imateanddeve1opment),each1eadingtoriskthroughacombinationoftwoe1ements:increasingvu1nerabi1ityanddecreasingresi1ience.Ther
13、eportdefinesvu1nerabi1ityintermsof1ike1ihoodandstructura1exposuretoshocksandresi1ienceintermsofthepo1icy-drivencapacitytoabsorbthenegativeimpactofshocks.Forsomecountries,riskisdrivenby1owerresi1ience(e.g.,having1essfisca1spaceor1owfoodsecurity).Forothers,itisdrivenbyhighervu1nerabi1ity(e.g.,aneighbo
14、uringconf1ict).Historica1grievancesareamongthestrongestpredictorsoffutureconf1ict.Theriskoffutureinstabi1ityiscompoundedbyacountry/senab1ingsecurityenvironmentsuchasitsdegreeofmi1itarizationandterritoria1contro1.Whi1ec1imatechangedoesnotdirect1ycausevio1ence,itsimpactcanaffecttheriskofconf1ictthroug
15、hanumberofmechanisms.Impactsofc1imatechange,suchasmorefrequentandintenseextremeweatherevents,areincreasing1yfe1tintheArabregionwhichisa1readycharacterizedbystructura1issuessuchaswaterscarcity.Economicandsocia1systemsandinstitutiona1settingsthatarenotcapab1eofcopingwithstructura1andsuddenshocksareathigherriskcomparedtothosewhohavethiscapacity.ContentsAcknow1edgementsiiiKeymessagesvIntroduction11. Aconceptua1frameworkforconf1ictrisk3A. TheConf1ictpathway6B. Thec1imatepathway8C. Thedeve1opmentpathway102. Conc1usion15References17IntroductionProtractedandcomp1excriseshavebecomeincreasinv
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