【餐饮外卖-研报】J.P.摩根-全球食品行业-食品外卖：深入亚洲市场这日益成为投资者关注的焦点_市.docx

《【餐饮外卖-研报】J.P.摩根-全球食品行业-食品外卖：深入亚洲市场这日益成为投资者关注的焦点_市.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【餐饮外卖-研报】J.P.摩根-全球食品行业-食品外卖：深入亚洲市场这日益成为投资者关注的焦点_市.docx（53页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、Global Equity Research22 September 2021JPMorganMarcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-4447marcus.diebelExecutivesummaryTableofContentsKoreaTaiwan-thelargestmarketforDeliveryHeroinAsiaexLeadingpositioninanoligopolymarket,butsmallerplayersarewell-funded7Risingimportanceofcitiesex-Taipei/NewTaipei8Subscriptionmodel

2、sarerisingsharplyinthemarketwithpositiveeffectsonuniteconomics10TheopportunityinGrocery/RetailpartnershipinTaiwanmayprovebiggerthanweinitiallyexpected1124HPandamart,leadingdarkstoreplayer,competitivepricing12Pandago,fillinginlastmiledeliverywithon-demandlogisticsservice16Regulationriskisunlikelytobe

3、akeyconcerninthemarket16HongKong-afast-growingattractivemarketforDeliverooandehveryHer17Oligopolymarketwithc.95%ownedbytwoplayers18Attractiveeconomics-highorderfrequencycombinedwithhighaverageordervalue20Uniteconomicsalsobenefitfromsubscriptionmodels21DeliverooEditions-rampingupquicklyinKowloonandNe

4、wTerritories21GroceryandRetailofferingswellpositionedtobenefitfromthewidereCommercetailwind23CompetitionispresentinOnlineGrocery,butverylimitedwithinon-demand,whichwebelieveisakeydifferentiatorforDeliverooandFoodpanda24GrocerypricingattractiveonDeliverooandPandamartevenwithoutspeedandconvenienceadva

5、ntages24Regulationrisknotakeyconcernforusinthismarket28SoutheastAsia-ongoingdigitaldisruptionwithamplegrowthopportunities29Malaysia-largestmarketbyGMVinASEANforDeliveryHero30Thailand-secondlargestmarketbyGMVinASEANforDeliveryHeroandthefocusnowisBangkok31Philippines-thirdlargestmarketbyGMVinASEANforD

6、eliveryHero33Singapore-anattractiveurbanmarketforDeliverooandDeliveryHero35Vietnam-arathernewmarketforDeliveryHero36Onlinegroceriespresentmajorgrowthopportunityforonlineplatforms37020integrationandpartnershipshavebeengrowinginASEANandarelikelytodeepen39SouthKorea-largestsingle-marketforDeliveryHero4

7、0#Global Equity Research22 September 2021JPMorganMarcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-4447marcus.diebel5ExecutivesummaryFigure1:EBITDAmargins40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%CMCMCXJaooeqcxicxiDHERbDASHAsia-alargemarketinregardstoFoodDeliveryandQuickcommerceFoodDeliveryandQuickcommercehavebecomeastrongfocusforinvestorsinrec

8、entmonthsgiventhesignificantmarketpotential(onlinepenetrationratesarewellbelow20%inmanymarkets).Levelsofcompetitionishigh,however,withseveralfooddeliveryoperatorsactiveintheregion(DeliveryHero,Grab,UberEats,Deliveroo,Coupang,Shopeeandmanyothers).ForDeliveryHero,Asiaabsorbsthemajorityofinvestments.In

9、thisnote,togetherwithouranalystcounterpartsintheregionwedoadeep-diveanalysisofAsia(ex-MainlandChina),lookingintomarketslikeTaiwan,HongKong,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,andSouthKorea.Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Companydata.Figure2:EV/GMVmultipleSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Companydata

10、.Figure3:Sales2021-2024CAGROverall,weremainbullishonDeliveryHeroandseestrategicoptionsforDeliveroointheregionOurestimateforEBITDAprofitabilityby2023stillholdsandweexpectthesharestore-rateoverthenext12m(currentlyon0.6x22EV/GMVversusDoorDashL6x)withourJune-23TPindicating62%upsidepotential.Wewouldargue

11、thatDeliveryHeroslevelof(or,better,lackof)profitabilityisthekeysharepricedriverandmainreasonbehindthevaluationdiscounttoDoorDash.With43%ofrevenuesAsiaisalreadyDHsbiggestregion,absorbingthemajorityofinvestments(-202mEBITDAversus-332matgrouplevelinHl2021),butweseeimprovingtrendsandforecastprofitsinthe

12、regiontomovefrom-703min2021to-6328min2022to409min2023-enoughtoachieveprofitabilityatthegrouplevelby2023E.WenotethatDeliveroo(N)isalsoactiveintheregionandweseeM&Atoprovidingfurtheroptionsinthefuture.2021E2022E2023E2024ERevenueTable1:DeliveryHerorevenuesandadj.EBITDAbysegmenttIIIIllllllUllbMENAAmerica

13、sAsiaSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Companydata.boothKoreaTaiwanOthermarketsGroupAdj.EBITDAEuropeMENAAmericasAsiaSouthKoreaTaiwanOthermarketsGroupSource:J.P.Morganestimates.Companydata.1,5745192,8001,3/a5428816,5381,9236543,6507371J558,7382,4428034,5772,1449441,4892,7421,1385,605331J611,871208167141189-104-530-99-108-323-70365346-98-300-9059-151-328930619392144214015T-406789897775625161511-8Figure 4: GlobalFoodDelivery-2021EEV/GMVvs.2021E-23EGMVCAGRFigure 5: GlobalFoodDelivery-2021EEV/Grossprofitvs.2021-23EGrossprofitCAGR+40.0%+30.0%DeliveryHeroMeituan:Deliveroo+20.0%Uber+10.0