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1、Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchMRPUTINANDTHECHRONIC1EOfanorma1isationFORETO1DJagjitS.ChadhaNationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchNIESRDiscussionPaperNo.551August2023AbouttheNationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchTheNationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1ResearchisBritains1ongest
2、estab1ishedindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocia1forcesthataffectpeop1es1ives,andthewaysinwhichpo1icycanbringaboutchange.Overeightyyears1ater,thisremainscentra1toNIESR,sethos.Wecontinuetoapp1yourexpertiseinbo
3、thquantitativeandqua1itativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocia1issuestocurrentdebatesandtoinf1uencepo1icy.TheInstituteisindependentofa11party-po1itica1interests.Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1Research2DeanTrenchSt1ondonSW1P3HET:+44(0)2072227665E:enauiriesniesr.ac.ukRegisteredcharityno
4、.306083Thispaperwasfirstpub1ishedinAugust2023CompetingInterestStatement:Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarebasedonresearchandarenotattributedtotheorganizationstowhichtheresearchersareaffi1iated.Therearenoconf1ictsofinterest.Theusua1disc1aimerapp1ies.Nationa1InstituteofEconomicandSocia1Research2023MrPuti
5、nandtheChronic1eofaNorma1isationForeto1dJagjitS.ChadhaAbstractMajorcentra1bankshavebeencaughtina1owinterestratetrapforoveradecade.Thetemporaryresponsetothefinancia1crisisof2008-9hasbecomesomethingofaregime.TheFedera1Reserve,forexamp1e,attemptedtoeasequantitativeeasingin2013butthissta11edfo11owingthe
6、tapertantrum,zandcommencedanorma1isationintheFedera1Fundsratefrom2015butduringCovidmajorcentra1banksaroundthewor1drapid1yreturnedpo1icyratestoaroundzero.1owpo1icyrateshavebeentheresponsetotightercreditconditions,excessiveg1oba1savings,1ow1eve1sofinvestmentandfisca1conso1idation.Buttheyhavea1sop1ayed
7、aro1einprope11ingassetpricegrowthandincreasing1eve1sofindebtedness.Theaccommodativestanceinmonetarypo1icy,aswe11astheimpetusfrompreviousmonetaryandfisca1interventionsseem1iketohavestokedinf1ationtoahigher1eve1thatmightotherwisehavebeenthecasefo11owingtheshockofawarontheEuropeancontinent.Butmaya1soha
8、vefina11ysecuredanorma1isationinpo1icyrates.C1assification:E43zE58zE61Keywords:Monetarypo1icy,UkraineWarzNorma1isation,1iquidityTrapAcknow1edgmentsThisessayhasbenefittedfromcommentsandconversationswithTimBes1eyz1uisaCorrado,MickCoxzPau1FisherzStephenMi11ardzPau1Mortimer-1ee7DmytroNata1ukhazAdrianPab
9、stzNicho1asReed1angenzSi1vanaTenreyroandthecommentsfromananonymousreferee.Ithasbeenpreparedfor1SEPub1icPo1icyReview:Specia1issueRussiasWarinUkraineandtheFutureoftheG1oba1Order77.Anyopinionsexpressedareminea1one.IntroductionMrPutin,sinvasioninUkrainehasimpartedaconsiderab1eshocktothewor1deconomy.Atth
10、eendof2023,inf1ationintheOECDcountriesstoodat1.2percent.Bytheendofthefirstquarterof2023,ithadrisento8.8percent.Overthesameperiod,g1oba1po1icyratesrosefrom-0.5percent,0.2percentand0.1percentintheEuroAreazUSAandUKrespective1ytostandat3.25percent,5.0percent,4.5percentbyApri12023.According1y,theNationa1
11、InstituteofEconomicandSocia1Researchhadforecastwor1dGDPtogrowat4.2percentand3.5percentin2023and2023inFebruary2023butbyFebruary2023thishadbeenheavi1yreviseddownto2.3percentand2.8percentrespective1y.ThesharpincreaseinenergyandfoodcostssincetheRussianinvasionofUkrainehasnoton1ythreatenedpricestabi1ityb
12、uthasa1soaskedseverequestionsofthemonetaryandfisca1frameworkswhichcopedsowe11withstabi1isingtheg1oba1economyoverthepreviousquarterofacentury.Manyhadarguedthatthisperiodofextraordinarymonetarypo1icy,whi1ehe1pfu1inavoidinganextendeddepressionaftertheg1oba1financia1crisis,hadbeenextendedtoo1ongandexpan
13、dedtoofar.Theconsequenceofthiswasanunnecessari1y1argeamountofquantitativeeasing,burgeoningpub1icdebt,andanincreaseinthefractionofunproductivefirms,aswe11asthemispricingofriskinfinancia1markets.Ifnotasecu1arstagnation,bywhichImeanaperiodofs1owstructura1growththathasrequiredhistorica11y1owinterestrate
14、stopreventdef1ation,theperiodseemstohavehadmanyofthecharacteristicsofa1iquiditytrap,withfirmshoardingcashratherthaninvesting.Itwou1dbeironicindeedifanactofinternationa1aggressionweretobeprovidetheimpetustocorrectamisa1ignmentinthestanceofmonetarypo1icy.ContextTheinvasionofUkrainecameataprecariousmom
15、entforag1oba1economysti11tryingtorecoverfromtheimpactoftheCovidpandemic.Outputhadbare1yreacheditspre-CovidpeakinmostOECDeconomieswhenRussiastankscrossedUkrainesborder.Acrossthewor1d,thefisca1responsetoCovidzintermsofadditiona1expenditureandforegonerevenue,amountedtosome18percentOfadvancedeconomiesGD
16、Pin2023prices,aswe11asanother10percentofGDPintermsofequity1oansorguarantees,1Whi1emanymaintainedthattheCovidshockwasprimari1yonetothesupp1y-side,withrea1marketsindysfunctionandworkerswithdrawnfromthe1abourforce,therewerea1soanimpactonthedemand-side.Theseweremanifestmostobvious1ywitharadica1increaseinthesavingsrate,withsomeofthisriseforcedandsomeprecautionary.Asthepandemicreceded,thewor1denteredintoaperiodofreadjustmentfro
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