《【酒行业报告】食品饮料行业周报：春节反馈好于预期白酒动销环比加速-20230129-华鑫证券_市场.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【酒行业报告】食品饮料行业周报：春节反馈好于预期白酒动销环比加速-20230129-华鑫证券_市场.docx（25页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。
1、证券研究报告华鑫证券MIWCMTiIMCCriiftfTtCC春节反馈好于预期，白酒动销环比加速一食品饮料行业周报推荐（维持）投资要点行业相对表现表现1M3M12M食品饮料（申万）6.835.10.6沪深3008.418.1-8.4分析师：孙山山S1050521110005SUnSS分析师：何宇航S市场表现（%）食品饮料中深300资料来源：Wind,华宏证券研究相关研究1、食品饮料行业周报：关注珍酒李渡进度，大众品好于预期2023-01-152、食品饮料行业周报：白酒继续分化，大众品持续改善2023-01-083、食品饮料行业周报：白酒回款如期进行，大众品缓慢复苏2023-01-02I一周新闻
2、速递行业新闻：1）2023年烟酒类零售总额为5046亿。2）贵州2023白酒产业增加值涨32%+。公司新闻：1）珍酒李渡冲刺IPOo2）泸州老窖举行2023年度总结表彰大会。3）五粮液发布2023四大工作重点、明确2023六项重点工作。I投资观点春节前后，随着消费群体阳康后，整体消费氛围持续回升，餐饮和酒店火爆更多反映消费信心的持续回升，白酒板块整体动销好于此前预期，甚至超预期。我们维持此前观点不变，坚持认为疫后板块复苏顺序如下：白酒啤酒休闲食品二软饮料速冻食品调味品乳制品。白酒板块：春节期间动销环比节前加速，整体板块库存环比节前明显下降。分区域来看，河南、安徽地区中高端酒动销表现超预期，湖南
3、地区表现略超预期，江苏地区洋河和今世缘回款和动销表现良好，婚喜宴恢复至同期九成。分板块内部来看，高端酒地产酒次高端酒。现阶段我们重点推荐4+4产品矩阵，即高端酒茅五泸+汾酒+地产酒四杰（古井贡酒、今世缘、洋河股份、金种子酒）。大众品板块：春节期间，休闲食品和速冻食品反馈良好，调味品库存环比继续下降，餐饮复苏加快调味品B端复苏。现阶段我们重点推荐3+3+3产品矩阵，即速冻三雄（安井食品、三全食品、千味央厨）、休闲食品三剑客（盐津铺子、甘源食品、劲仔食品）、预期差三杰（绝味食品、紫燕食品、中炬高新）。维持食品饮料行业“推荐”投资评级。行业研究I风险提示疫情波动风险；宏观经济波动风险；推荐公司业绩不
4、及预期的风险；行业竞争风险；食品安全风险；行业政策变动风险；消费税或生产风险；原材料价格波动风险。重点关注公司及盈利预测公司代码名称2023/1/29股价EPSPE投资评级2023E2023E2024E2023E2023E2024E600519.SH贵州茅台1860.0149.8458.6668.4837.3231.7127.16买入000858.SZ五粮液208.726.918.069.3230.2125.9022.39买入000568.SZ泸州老窖247.807.118.7410.5934.8528.3523.40买入600809.SH山西汾酒296.406.488.3410.4845.7
5、435.5428.28买入002304.SZ洋河股份183.116.377.639.0828.7524.OO20.17买入0799.SZ酒鬼酒139.203.604.866.1938.6728.6422.49买入600702.SH舍得酒业166.464.425.597.2737.6629.7822.90买入600779.SH水井坊82.772.492.933.4833.2428.2523.78买入000596.SZ古井贡酒288.955.777.289.0850.0839.6931.82买入603369.SH今世缘57.411.972.493.0929.1423.0618.58买入603589
6、.SH口子害56.923.023.473.9418.8516.4014.45买入603198.SH迎驾贡酒69.032.132.683.2832.4125.7621.05买入600199.SH金种子酒25.77-0.100.110.39-257.70234.2766.08买入603919.SH金微酒25.220.670.931.1437.6427.1222.12买入600197.SH伊力特24.920.460.630.8654.1739.5628.98买入600559.SH老白干酒29.830.770.790.9638.7437.7631.07买入603288.SH海天味业79.741.611
7、.912.2449.5341.7535.60买入603027.SH千禾味业22.360.370.700.8260.4331.9427.27买入603317.SH天味食品26.130.450.590.7558.0744.2934.84买入600872.SH中炬高新38.200.941.101.2740.6434.7330.08买入002507.SZ澹陵榨菜26.321.141.321.5223.0919.9417.32买入600305.SH恒顺醋业12.130.170.240.2971.3550.5441.83买入603755.SH日辰股份38.670.741.051.3652.2636.832
8、8.43买入603170.SH宝立食品27.590.490.680.8556.3140.5732.46买入300999.SZ金龙鱼45.390.791.081.3657.4642.0333.38买入300908.SZ仲景食品35.241.221.471.7128.8923.9720.61买入600298.SH安洪酵母43.OO1.672.112.5425.7520.3816.93买入300755.SZ华致酒行31.151.232.012.8125.3315.5011.09买入605499.SH东璃饮料179.783.484.295.2651.6641.9134.18买入603711.SH杳飘飘
9、15.241.061.1814.3812.92买入605337.SH李子园21.951.051.301.6120.9016.8813.63买入600132.SH重庆啤酒123.972.713.384.0045.7536.6830.99买入600600.SH青岛啤酒105.162.573.133.6540.9233.6028.81买入603345.SH安井食品162.284.105.467.0439.5829.7223.05买入603517.SH绝味食品53.820.600.911.3389.7059.1440.47买入603057.SH紫燕食品28.930.721.071.3640.1827.
10、0421.27买入002847.SZ盐津铺子105.002.323.564.5045.2629.4923.33买入603719.SH良品铺子34.510.991.261.5834.8627.3921.84买入002991.SZ甘源食品76.871.992.583.5038.6329.7921.96买入002557.SZ洽洽食品48.031.992.222.5624.1421.6418.76买入003000.SZ劲仔食品11.080.290.370.4538.2129.9524.62买入605338.SH巴比食品29.151.001.211.5129.1524.0919.30买入300973.S
11、Z立高食品92.290.981.782.5494.1751.8536.33买入002216.SZ三全食品17.200.941.081.2418.3015.9313.87买入600882.SH妙可蓝多33.740.530.700.9563.6648.2035.52买入001215.SZ千味央厨71.281.231.632.0957.9543.7334.11买入605089.SH味如香65.001.471.832.2644.2235.5228.76买入002330.SZ得利斯6.510.110.160.2459.1840.6927.13买入603043.SH广州酒家25.711.071.301.5
12、424.0319.7816.69买入002956.SZ西麦食品14.000.450.560.6831.1125.0020.59买入002570.SZ贝因美4.910.090.220.5654.5622.328.77买入600887.SH伊利股份32.331.371.621.9223.6019.9616.84买入603156.SH养元饮品21.181.201.481.8017.6514.3111.77买入002183.SZ怡亚通6.190.260.330.4023.8118.7615.48买入300094.SZ国联水产5.560.100.170.2555.6032.7122.24买入002726.SZ龙大美食8.840.070.150.21126.2958
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