IHS Markit 2021年世界石油化工大会关于可持续与循环经济的亮点.docx

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1、14 April 2021Global ResearchEquitiesN. Am. Chems & PkggNorth AmericaContainers & PackagingJoshua Spector, CFAAnalystjoshua.spector+ 1-212-713 6188John RobertsAnalystjohn.roberts+ 1-212-713 2210Lucas BeaumontAssociate Analystlucas.beaumont+ 1-212-713 4809Matthew SkowronskiAssociate Analystmatthew.sko

2、wronski+1-212-713 1430Sustainability/Circular Economy highlights fromIHS Markit 2021 World Petrochemical ConferenceIHS Markit meetings highlight challenges in meeting circular plastics goalsWe earlier reviewed confrence highlights from basic/specialty chem updates (link) andagriculture updates (link

3、), and now review takeaways from 10+ sessions focused onplastics sustainability/circular economy. Shifting plastics from a linear life-cycle (endingas waste) to a circular cycle (re-use) is key to achieving a growing set of sustainabilityand waste plastic goals. Within our coverage, plastics package

4、rs are working on makingmaterial more recyclable (& out of recycled products), and upstream resin producers areinvesting in recycling technology. To learn more about what the industry is doing, askabout attending our Sustainable Packaging Materials conference on May 11.Base case still assumes EU can

5、t meet its 2025 objectives & rest of world lagsThe EU has the most aggressive target of 50% recycled plastics by 2025, & IHSMassumes only mid-teens for polyethylene, the most widely used packaging plastic. IHSMbase case assumes global plastic recycling rates of 20% by 2050 and 50% in anaggressive sc

6、enario. Only 4% of overall plastics use are easier to target, short-cyclesingle use applications. The rest are higher performance uses in durables or packagingto reduce food spoilage (plastics demand st川 est. to grow at 3-4% CAGR to 2050).Emerging markets are key to global waste plastic reductionsAb

7、out 12% of annual global municipal solid waste (MSW) is plastic. Almost all plasticthat makes its way to the ocean is via rivers in emerging markets. About 1/3 of globalwaste is currently unmanaged (again emerging markets), 37% landfilled, 11%incinerated to recover the energy value, & only 19% is re

8、cycled/composted (mostlynon-plastic, almost all in developed markets). We review European regulations as aframework for developed nations, but tackling waste challenges in Emerging marketsremain key to addressing the global challenges.Investments in chem recycling & infrastructure ramping up.more is

9、 neededThe economics & quality of mechanically recycled plastics can limit their applications.While converting plastics back to base chems isnt expected to be economical at scalebefore 2030, it could become larger after 2030. Companies in our coverage working inthis area incl. Dow, LyondellBasell, E

10、astman Chem. & others. To meet 1HsMs moreaggressive 2050 recycling rates, at least another $500B needs to be spent by 2050.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, includinginformation on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, b

11、egin on page 17. UBS does and seeks to dobusiness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in mak

12、ing theirinvestment decision.Sustainability highlights from 2021 WPCFigure 1 puts the plastics waste situation into perspective. About 12% of annualglobal municipal solid waste (MSW) is plastic. And almost all plastic that makes itsway to the ocean is via rivers in emerging markets. About 1/3 of glo

13、bal waste iscurrently unmanaged (again emerging markets), 37% is landfilled, 11% isincinerated to recover the energy value, and 19% is recycled/composted (mostlynon-plastic, almost all in developed markets). By 2050, low income country MSWis expected to increase 3x (4-5% CAGR), while high income MSW

14、 is only expectedto increase 19% (0.5%-0.6% CAGR).Figure 1: Global Waste Composition 2016 (2 billion metric tons)TypeMil. MTs%Food & Green88044%Paper & Cardboard34017%Plastics24012%Glass1005%Metal804%Rubber & Leather402%Wood402%Other28014%Total2,000100%Source: World Bank, UBSFigure 2 provides anothe

15、r perspective, from the lens of global CO2 emissions. In2016 global CO2 emissions were 37.4 bil tons. Of this,89% comprised energy-related CO2 emissions, either directly via power generation, heating, or transport,or indirectly as a result of industrial processes. IHSM notes that base chemicalsemissions are 10% of global CO2 emissions, and plastics portion of this is lessthan half of that.Figure 2: Global CO2 emissions breakdown (bil tons, 2016)Bil MTs% of totalPower generation12.032%Tran