【行业报告】世界银行-保护谁？：有限信息冲击下的最优社会保护对策（英）-2023.5_市场营销策划_.docx

《【行业报告】世界银行-保护谁？：有限信息冲击下的最优社会保护对策（英）-2023.5_市场营销策划_.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【行业报告】世界银行-保护谁？：有限信息冲击下的最优社会保护对策（英）-2023.5_市场营销策划_.docx（34页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、ProtectingWho?Optima1Socia1ProtectionResponsestoShockswith1imitedInformationCar1osOspinoHernandez,Jame1eRigo1ini,SarahCo11-B1ackandAnaMariaOviedoWor1dBank.Contactauthor:Jame1eRigo1ini,TheWor1dBank,1818HSt.NW,Washington,DC20433.Emai1:irigo1iniWOr1dbank.orv.Theauthorswou1d1iketothank1eonardo1ucchettia

2、ndTomBundervoetfortheirguidanceinmode1inggovernmentresponsesinNorthMacedoniaandMo1dova,respective1y,EdithZinkforthesupportwiththesimu1ationsforMo1dova,andJavierBaezzPhi11ippe1eite,CemMeteandRomanZhukovskyifortheirva1uab1ecomments.Thisana1ysiswassupported,inpart,throughatrustfundfromtheG1oba1Faci1ity

3、forDisasterReductionandRecovery.JE1C1assification:D6,H5,13,Q5.Keywords:Socia1Protection,AdaptiveSocia1Protection,DisasterRiskManagement,COVID-19,Targeting.1. IntroductionTheCOVID-19pandemicspurredamassivewaveofsocia1protectionresponsesacrosstheg1obe.ByJanuary2023zabout3z800socia1protectionand1aborme

4、asureshadbeenannouncedorimp1ementedin223countriestohe1ppeop1ecopewiththeeconomicdownturncausedbythehea1themergencyandtheensuingpub1ichea1thcontainmentmeasures(Genti1inieta1.2023),amountingto2percentofcountries/GDPonaverage.G1oba11y,socia1assistancemakesup61percentoftheseresponsemeasures,fo11owedbysu

5、pp1y-side1abormarketprograms(20percent)andsocia1insurance(19percent).Cashandfoodtransfers,pensionwithdrawa1s,extendedunemp1oymentbenefits,wagesubsidies,andworksharingarrangementsaresomeofthemostcommonpo1icyinstrumentsgovernmentsdep1oyedinanefforttoreachdifferentgroupsthatwereaffectedbythepandemic,fr

6、omforma1sectorworkerstopoorandvu1nerab1eindividua1swhodonotworkorwereactiveintheinforma1sector.Increasing1y,studiesareassessingtheadequacyandimpactsoftheseemergencysocia1protectionmeasures,butsofar1itt1eisknownabouttheirefficiency.Reviewsofthesocia1assistanceresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicmost1yexamin

7、ethetargetpopu1ation,coveragerates,adequacyofbenefitsandspeedoftheresponseandhigh1ightgapsincoverageandweaknessesinde1iverysystems.Seeforexamp1eBastag1iand1owe(2023).Genti1ini(2023)a1sodiscussestrendswithintheg1oba1cashtransfersresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Name1y,therehasbeenscantdebateaboutwhether

8、theresponsesdep1oyedtocounterthepandemic-inducedcrisiswerethemostappropriateandcost-effective,a1thoughnewevidencesuggeststherewereconsiderab1einefficiencieswithinspecificprograms.Autoreta1.(2023),forinstance,1ookatthertPaycheckProtectionProgramwintheUSandfindthatwhi1etheprogramwasdep1oyedswift1yandh

9、adwidespreadtake-up,its1ackoftargetingimp1iedthaton1y23-34percentofthespendingwenttoworkerswhowou1dhave1osttheirjobsotherwise:simi1arresu1tsmaythushavebeenobtainedatafractionofthecost.Someevidenceisa1sobeginningtoemergeontheeffectivenessofdifferentprogramdesigns.Forexamp1e,Demirgu-Kunteta1(2023)c1as

10、sifysocia1protectionmeasuresintothosethatprotectedjobsascomparedwiththosethatprotectedhouseho1dorindividua1income.TheauthorsarguethatjobprotectionmeasuresinEuropeandCentra1Asiaresu1tedinhigheremp1oyment,1essinactivityand1owerpoverty,intheshortrun,incountrieswithweakerpre-pandemicsocia1insurancesyste

11、ms.However,whi1esuchana1ysisbeginstoprovideinsightsthatcanbeusedtoinformaresponsetoafuture1arge-sca1epandemic,thereisaneedtodeve1oparesponseframeworkthatexp1ainsthesedifferentia1effectsandcoversvarioustypesofshocks.The1ackofknow1edgeaboutanoptima1socia1protectionresponsetoshocksextendsbeyondtheCOVID

12、-19pandemic.The1iteratureonshock-responsiveandAdaptiveSocia1Protection(ASP)hasmain1yfocusedonoperationa1featurestoenab1earesponsethroughsocia1protectionprogramstovarioustypesofshocks,suchassettingoutprogramproceduresinadvance(assessment,enro11ment,payments,etc.),prepositioningfinancingtofundanincrea

13、seinprogramsize,andtheuseofsocia1registriesorgeo1ocationtoidentifyaffectedpopu1ationsforprogramsupport(Boweneta1.2023;O,Brieneta1.2018).Beyondthefocusonbui1dingthecapacityofasocia1protectionprogramanditsde1iverysystemstorespondtofutureshocks,incountrieswithmorerobustsocia1protectionsystems1iestheque

14、stionofwhichprograms-acrosssocia1assistanceandsocia1insurance-tose1ectforsuchinvestmentsandwhy.Weusethetermsshockresponseandemergencysocia1protectionresponseinterchangeab1ytodescribearapidresponsetoprotecthouseho1dsfromtheimmediateeffectsofashock.Thechoiceofwhichprogramstousetorespondtoshocksandthei

15、rspecificdesignfeaturescansubstantia11yinf1uenceimpactsandefficiency.Shockshaveheterogeneousdistributiona1impacts(i.e.,energypriceshavedifferentdistributiona1impactsthanearthquakes,f1oodsordroughts),andthesemayvarywiththeeconomysstructure(e.g.,COVID-19pandemicaffectedtourism-dependenteconomiesdispro

16、portionate1y),therobustnessofexistingsocia1programsandtheirde1iverysystems(moreinforma1economiesmayfinditmorecha11engingtoreachaffectedpeop1e),orthecontainmentmeasuresapp1ied(somecountriesrestrictedactivityinmoresectorsthanotherstocontainthepandemic).Idea11y,emergencysocia1protectionresponsesshou1dconsiderthesefactorsandse1ectprecise1ytheprogram(s)tobeexpandedormodifiedthatwi11reachthemostaffectedgroupswithadequateandtime1ycompensation.Inpractice,however,countrie