行业报告IMF菲利普斯曲线变陡了吗？英20235_市场营销策划_重点报告2023050.docx

《行业报告IMF菲利普斯曲线变陡了吗？英20235_市场营销策划_重点报告2023050.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《行业报告IMF菲利普斯曲线变陡了吗？英20235_市场营销策划_重点报告2023050.docx（22页珍藏版）》请在第一文库网上搜索。

1、INTERNATIONA1MONETARYFUNDHasthePhi11ipsCurveBecomeSteeper?Ani1Ari,Danie1Garcia-MaciaandShrutiMishraWP/23/100IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresen

2、ttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2023MAYWP/23/1002023Internationa1MonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperEuropeanDepartmentHasthePhi11ipsCurveBecomeSteeper?PreparedbyAni1Ari,Danie1Garcia-MaciaandShrutiMishra*AuthorizedfordistributionbyS.A1iAbbasMay2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesea

3、rchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepub1ishedtoe1icitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessari1yrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Thispaperana1yzeswhetherstructura1changesintheaftermathofthepandemichavestee

4、penedthePhi11ipscurvesinadvancedeconomies,reversingthef1atteningObSerVedinrecentdecadesandreducingthesacrificeratioassociatedwithdisinf1ation.Particu1ar1y,ana1ysisofgranu1arpricequotedatafromtheUKindicatesthatincreaseddigita1izationmayhaveraisedpricef1exibi1ity,whi1ede-g1oba1izationmayhavemadeinf1at

5、ionmoreresponsivetodomesticeconomicconditionsagain.Usingsectora1datafrom24advancedeconomiesinEurope,higherdigita1izationand1owertradeintensityareshowntobeassociatedwithsteeperPhi11ipscurves.Post-pandemicPhi11ipscurveestimatesindicatesomesteepeningintheUK,Spain,Ita1yandtheeuroareaasawho1e,butatmagnit

6、udesthataretoosma11toexp1aintheentiresurgeininf1ationin2023-22,suggestinganimportantro1eforoutwardshiftsinthePhi11ipscurve.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Ari,A.,Garcia-Macia,D.,andMishra,S.(2023).HasthePhi11ipsCurveBecomeSteeper?IMFWorkingPaper,WP/23/100JE1C1assificationNumbers:E31,E52,033,F41Keywords:Phi11ips

7、Curve;Inf1ation;De-g1oba1ization;Digita1ization;Structura1changeAuthorsE-Mai1Address:aariimf.orq,daarciamaciaimf.ora,sm4371co1Umbia.eduThispaperbenefitedfromtheguidanceofS.A1iAbbas,MarkF1anaganand1auraPapi,andhe1pfu1commentsfromTommasoAqui1ante,He1geBerger,OyaCe1asun,RuoChen,RomainDuva1,ChristianG1o

8、cker,MyrtoOikonomou1SaskiaterE11en,BoromeusWanengkirtyo1andseminarparticipantsattheBankofEng1andandHisMajestysTreasury.Wearegratefu1toG1oria1iforexce11entresearchassistance.WORKINGPAPERSHasthePhi11ipsCurveBecomeSteeper?PreparedbyAni1Ari,Danie1Garcia-MaciaandShrutiMishra1,Thispaperbenefitedfromthegui

9、danceofA1iAbbasandMarkF1anagan,andhe1pfu1commentsfromTommasoAqui1ante1RuoChen,RomainDuva1,ChristianG1ocker1MyrtoOikonomou1SaskiaterE11en,BoromeusWanengkirtyo,andothercounterpartsattheBankofEng1andandHisMajestysTreasury.Contents1. INTRODUCTION32. RE1ATED1ITERATURE53. EMPIRICA1FRAMEWORKANDDATA73.1 Sec

10、tora1Phi11ipsCurveEstimation73.2 Digita1izationandPriceF1exibi1ity83.3 DataSourcesandConstruction84. EMPIRICA1RESU1TSANDROBUSTNESS104.1 Sectora1Phi11ipsCurveRegressions104.2 Digita1izationandPriceF1exibi1ity145. POST-PANDEMICPHI11IPSCURVEESTIMATION156. CONC1USION16FIGURE1. Phi11ipsCurveS1ope4TAB1ES2

11、. CountriesandSectorsInc1udedinthePane1Dataset93. Base1ineEmpirica1Resu1ts124. RobustnessCheck135. Digita1izationandPriceF1exibi1ityResu1ts14References171. IntroductionThePhi11ipscurve,definedastheempirica1re1ationshipbetweenunemp1oymentandinf1ation,i11ustratesthetrade-offbetweenmaintainingpricestab

12、i1ityandachievingfu11capacityuti1ization.TherecenthistoryofthePhi11ipscurvehasbeenapuzz1e.Manystudieshaveconc1udedthatthePhi11ipscurvehasf1attenedinadvancedenomiesinrecentdecades(seee.g.,B1anchard,2016;De1Negroandothers,2023amongmanyothers),whi1eothershavedocumentedthemutedreactionofinf1ationto1arge

13、changesinunemp1oymentduringandaftertheGreatRecession(CoibionandGorodnichenko,2015;Heiseandothers,2023).The1iteraturehasproposedanumberofexp1anationsforthisphenomenon.First,theimp1ementationofinf1ationtargetingmayhaveincreasedthecapacityofmonetarypo1icytoneutra1izedemandshocks(whichwou1dmoveinf1ation

14、andunemp1oymentinoppositedirections),1eavingsupp1yshocks(whichmovetheminthesamedirection,shiftingthePhi11ipscurveinwards/outwards)asthemainsourceofaggregatevo1ati1ity(Broadbent,2023;Bergho1t5andothers,2023).Second,firmeranchoringofinf1ationexpectationsmayhavereducedsecond-roundeffectsofre1ativeprice

15、shocks(Borioandothers,2023).Third,g1oba1izationmayhavereducedtheresponsivenessofinf1ationtodomesticeconomics1ackandunemp1oyment(Heiseandothers,2023),inc1udingbyraising1abormarketf1exibi1itythroughareductionin1aborbargainingpower(1ombardiandothers,2023).Fourth,increasedmarketpowermayhaveaugmentedfins

16、,capacitytoabsorbcost-pushshocksintheirmarkups(Baqaee,FarhiandSangani,2023).Someofthesestructura1trendsmayhavestartedtoreverseinrecentyears.Therecentriseininf1ationtohistorica11yhigh1eve1sinadvancedeconomiesrisksweakeningtheanchoringofinf1ationexpectationsachievedoverthepasttwodecades.Ade-g1oba1izationscenariomaya1somakethedomesticoutputgapmorere1evantagain,aswe11asr