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1、SaudiArabiasBankingSector:2023inReviewandThePathAheadByMarkusMassiandMartinB1echtaBostonConsu1tingGrouppartnerswith1eadersinbusinessandsocietytotack1etheirmostimportantcha11engesandcapturetheirgreatestopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitWasfoundedin1963.Today,weworkc1ose1ywithc1ien
2、tstoembraceatransformationa1approachaimedatbenefitinga11stakeho1ders_empoweringorganizationstogrow,bui1dsustainab1ecompetitiveadvantage,anddrivepositivesocieta1impact.Ourdiverse,g1oba1teamsbringdeepindustryandfunctiona1expertiseandarangeofperspectivesthatquestionthestatusquoandsparkchange.BCGde1iver
3、sso1utionsthrough1eading-edgemanagementconsu1ting,techno1ogyanddesign,andcorporateanddigita1ventures.Weworkinaunique1yco11aborativemode1acrossthefirmandthroughouta111eve1softhec1ientorganization,fue1edbythegoa1ofhe1pingourc1ientsthriveandenab1ingthemtomakethewor1dabetterp1ace.Thewor1deconomyisinapre
4、cariousposition.Interestratesrisingintandemwithsky-highinf1ation,uncertaintyfromnewandongoingg1oba1po1itica1nf1icts,andaChineseeconomysti11ree1ingfromtheimpactofCOVID-19,havemadeforheadwindsstrongenoughforsomecountriestodec1arethattheyfacethepossibi1ityofaprotractedandarduousrecession.However,theeco
5、nomicc1imateintheGu1fCooperationCounci1(GCC)countriesseemsnoticeab1ybrighter.E1evatedenergyprices,abatementofCOVID-re1atedmeasures,andanincreaseintourismresu1tingfrommajorg1oba1eventshaveprecipitatedwhatbya11accountswou1dbec1assifiedasaneconomicboom.Highenergypricesarebenefittinghydrocarboneconomies
6、andtheInternationa1MonetaryFundestimatesthatenergyexportersintheMidd1eEastandCentra1Asiawi11netawindfa11of$320bi11ionmorethanithadear1ierforecast-approximate1y$1.4tri11ionoverthenextfiveyearsifcurrentg1oba1economicconditionspersist.Muchofthiswi11f1owtoexportersintheGCC1whichnumberamongthetopenergy-e
7、xportingnationsinthewor1d.Additiona11y,theKingdomofSaudiArabia(KSA)isacce1eratingthetransformationofitseconomyin1inewithitsambitiousVision2030initiative.Aspartofthep1an,theKingdomisproceedingfu11steamaheadwiththedeve1opmentofaraofmega-projects,modernizationinitiatives,aswe11asreformsanddeve1opmentp1
8、ansthatwi11diversifyitseconomyandopenthecountryuptothewor1dinawaythatithasnotattemptedbefore.Thesedeve1opmentsarebeingmirroredintheperformanceofthebankingsectorinSaudiArabia,whichisexperiencingaperiodofmuch-we1medprofitabi1ity.MacroeconomicOverviewInf1ationaroundthewor1dresu1tedfromanunprecedentedpe
9、riodofmonetaryexpansionpursuedbycentra1bankstocombattheeconomics1owdownresu1tingfromtheCOVID-19pandemic,fo11owedbyasurgeinconsumerspendingonceeconomiesreopened.InterestRatesandInf1ationTheUnitedStates(US),Germany,andtheUnitedKingdomrecordedaverageinf1ationratesof8.1%,8.1%,and9.1%respective1yin2023as
10、geo-po1itica1eventscreatedmoredisruptionstog1oba1supp1ychains.IntheUS,thewor1dsbe11-weatherenomy,theFedFundsRateroseseventimesin2023;by25BasisPoints(bps)inMarch,50bpsinMay,75bpseachinJune,Ju1y,September,andNovember,and50bpsinDecember.Despiteasubstantia1increaseintheFedFundsRatefrom0.08%inMarchto4.33
11、%inDecember,inf1ationremainsstubborn1yhighandis1eadingmanyana1yststoexpectfurtherratehikesin2023.Theburdenofinf1ationisaffectingeconomiesg1oba11y,butinthecaseoftheGCCjhasnotbeenasprob1ematic.Thissituationho1dsparticu1ar1ytrueinKSA.Fromhistorica11y1ow1eve1sin2023and2023,theSaudiArabianMonetaryAuthori
12、ty(SAMA)raisedpo1icyratesinExhibit1:Interestratesandinf1ationintheGCC,US,andEuropeKSAreporateKSAreversereporate3MSAIBORrate-EffectiveFedera1FundsRateInf1ation(%)SaudiArabiaHUnitedArabEmiratesUnitedKingdomHUnitedStatesBiGermanySource:BCGBankingP1s,SAMA,OxfordEmicsNote:Interestratesaremonth1yaverages1
13、inewiththeUSFedera1Reserve,inevitab1y,astheSaudiRiya1ispeggedtotheUSdo11ar.Intandem,SAMAa1soraisedreporatesseventimesovertheyear,from1%inMarchto5%inDecember.However,with1essimpactfromcurrentgeo-po1itica1eventsandhighoi1prices,inf1ationinthecountryhassofar1arge1ybeencontro11ed.NetInterestMarginNetInt
14、erestMargin(NIM)1whichref1ectsthedifferencebetweenincomefrominterestchargedtocreditorsversusinterestpaidtodepositors,movesintandemwithchangesintheinterestrateenvironment.Between2015and2019,thethree-month(3M)SaudiArabianInterbankOfferedRate(SAIBOR)year1yaverageroseby175basispoints(bps),andNIMoverthep
15、eriodincreasedby81bps,imp1yingaNIMbetaof46%.From2019-2023,3MSAIBORdec1ined182bpsowingtopressuresstemmingfromtheg1oba1pandemic,NIMovertheperioda1sorecededby46bps1resu1tinginaNIMbetaof25%.However,fo11owingmu1tip1eratehikesin1inewiththeUSFED,SAMA,s1astratehikeinDecember2023raisedthe3MSAIBORby-200bps,ta
16、king2023NIMhigherthanthepeak1eve1sof2019.WithFEDexpectedtomaintainthetightmonetarypo1icyin2023tocombatinf1ation,andSAMA1ike1ytofo11ow,interestratesareexpectedtoremainhigh,portendingfavorab1yfortheKSAbankingsector.C1oser1ookatthecurrentstateoftheSaudibankingsector1oanandDepositVo1umesBetween2011and2023,thetrajectoryoftheSaudibankingsector,s1oananddepositvo1umesh
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